Gov. Neil Abercrombie was always going to have a fundraising advantage over state Sen. David Ige in the Democratic primary for governor. But the size of the gap has raised warning flags about whether Ige can mount a credible challenge.
Abercrombie padded his re-election campaign by more than $533,700 over the past six months — to $3.8 million — according to the governor’s latest state campaign-finance report. Ige has raised just $56,200 since he announced his campaign in July and, combined with money left over from his Senate account, has brought in about $150,000.
Ige needs money for media advertising to build name recognition with voters, since he is largely unknown outside his Pearl City and Aiea Senate district. Even the more viral, grass-roots campaign that Ige and his allies envision requires money.
"It’s a real warning flag," said Neal Milner, a University of Hawaii-Manoa professor emeritus of political science.
Ige has just seven months before the August primary to build both name recognition and a narrative about why he should replace Abercrombie.
"It’s not like his campaign has faltered. It just hasn’t really gotten started yet," Milner said. "And considering what it takes to run against an incumbent governor who has got a lot of money, he really has to get cracking."
Some political analysts think Abercrombie, because of his low job approval ratings, is politically vulnerable. But Ige’s lack of fundraising suggests there may not be enough support in Democratic political circles for a primary challenge. No governor since William Quinn in 1962 has lost re-election, so Ige also has the burden of history to overcome.
"Under Gov. Abercrombie’s leadership, the state has been restored to financial health with a $844 million surplus, the economy is growing, and unemployment remains low," William Kaneko, Abercrombie’s campaign manager, said in a statement.
"His administration continues to invest in giving children a head start through early childhood education, providing financial relief to seniors, and stewardship of the environment. Voters have clearly recognized these achievements. The overwhelming financial support we’ve received is a testament to their trust in the governor’s leadership."
Ige, who has held just one fundraising event — in November — said his campaign is planning two fundraisers in February.
"We believe that we won’t be able to outspend him or out-raise him," Ige said of the governor. "But we believe that we can touch more people and touch more voters and tell our story."
Former Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona, who has said he plans another Republican campaign for governor, did not raise any money from July through December and had just $16,900 in his account at the end of last year, according to his latest campaign-finance report. Aiona lost to Abercrombie in 2010.
