If they follow the script, Hawaii’s Democrats will end their state convention today with both calls for party unity and some chest bumping about how they will sweep the table in November.

They would be wise to look around.

Politics is always a game of comparison. According to the voters four years ago, Neil Abercrombie compared to Mufi Hannemann looked better. Four years ago, Abercrombie also looked better in comparison to James "Duke" Aiona.

This year, the equation has changed.

If the Democrats ride Abercrombie into the general election, there is no certainty that more than a third of the voters will think the Hawaii Democrat looks that good compared to both former Mayor Mufi Hannemann and former Lt. Gov. Aiona.

Last week, Nathan Gonzales writing in Washington’s Roll Call newspaper said the paper was changing its prediction on the Hawaii governor’s race from "safe Democrat" to "Democrat favored."

The reasoning was that Abercrombie, described as a "polarizing figure," might split the Democratic vote with Hannemann, allowing Aiona to win with a plurality.

"Hannemann’s decision to run for governor as an independent changes the math of the race. The (former) Honolulu mayor should be a credible enough candidate to raise the possibility of splitting the Democratic vote with Abercrombie, allowing the Republican, Aiona, to win the race with less than 50 percent of the vote," said Roll Call.

Abercrombie has raised $4 million in the last four years, but he has failed to show any traction in his popularity. His erratic and confrontational administrative style confused voters, while his sometimes emotional support for taxing pensions and heated push for development disappointed key Democratic allies such as older voters and environmentalists.

Four years ago, Aiona and Republican strategists said Aiona lost because Abercrombie was able to paint Aiona as a religious extremist.

While Abercrombie’s team was waging an attack against Aiona via social media, Aiona actually gave Abercrombie’s charges credibility by calling a news conference to respond. Aiona also said Democrats were able to link him to former Gov. Linda Lingle’s falling popularity because of teacher furloughs.

Today the difference is that Aiona has benefited from four years of Abercrombie painting himself as someone unwilling to listen.

In terms of political issues, the big wedge from four years ago — gay marriage — is off the table. The Legislature extended the right of marriage to same-sex couples; Abercrombie signed it into law while nationally the U.S. Supreme Court pretty much made it a non-issue in federal cases.

How a Gov. Aiona or a Gov. Hannemann would react to a gay marriage bill is just not an issue today.

Abercrombie is a smart campaigner. One of his often-repeated theories of politics is that "people vote for you for their reasons, not yours."

As much as one’s campaign is designed to appeal to all voters, the candidate’s perception is in the hands of the voters, not the candidate.

In other words: Will voters see Abercrombie as their assurance of what they want for four years? Will the voters trust Abercrombie with their own dreams?

If enough voters are thinking about answering those questions in the negative, it is likely some Democrats in convention today may spend some time thinking about a Plan B.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.