Scientists predicted this would be an above-average Central Pacific hurricane season, and sure enough, Hurricane Iselle, packing 115 mph winds, is swirling in from the east.
Are the 30,000 or so residents of Waikiki, Hawaii’s most densely packed area, ready if Iselle or another storm makes a direct hit?
"Sadly, no," said Peter Hirai, deputy director of the city’s Department of Emergency Management.
Harai said his department has found that few residents and visitors have enough information to be properly prepared for a storm the magnitude of 1992’s Hurricane Iniki, the last major hurricane to slam into Hawaii.
And while security managers for some of Wai-kiki’s largest hotels meet monthly to review and update their disaster plans, there is no such effort among the scores of big and small condominium and apartment buildings that also populate Hawaii’s tourist mecca.
"Are Condos in Waikiki Prepared?" is the title of a presentation Tuesday at 10 a.m. at the Waikiki Community Center Annex, 310 Paoakalani Ave. John Cummings, the Department of Emergency Management’s public information officer, is hoping that Waikiki residents show up in force to learn what they face if the power goes out during a major storm — among other dangers.
Waikiki and other low-lying coastal regions of Oahu are particularly vulnerable to the ravages of a powerful storm with hurricane-force winds, flooding and surging ocean waves. And with a de facto population that includes tourists, workers and even homeless folks, as many as 125,000 people there could find themselves in big trouble.
How ugly could it get?
Civil defense, emergency management officials and scientists say it’s possible hundreds, maybe thousands, could be killed across Oahu. There would be billions of dollars’ worth of damage.
The high-rises would sway from 150 mph winds, and windows would be the targets of many flying projectiles.
Waikiki would be flooded from heavy rain and storm surges, not only from the ocean side, but from the Ala Wai Canal. Power would be lost for what could be a very long time.
On Kauai after Iniki, water and utilities weren’t fully up and running for four months.
According to an Oahu Civil Defense Agency report, the most costly natural disaster in U.S. history, the $108 billion Hurricane Katrina, could easily be replicated in the Pacific basin.
"Our islands lie just north of what is considered the ‘hurricane corridor’ of the Pacific, and we have been fortuitous in dodging many close calls since Hurricane Iniki in 1992," the report says.
"It’s fair to say it’s a rare event," said University of Hawaii meteorology professor Steve Businger. "I hope I won’t see it in my lifetime."
More than 650,000 people in Hawaii will require emergency sheltering and care and 1 million people will need feeding after a powerful hurricane, according to a 2009 Hawaii hurricane operations plan written for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The state has designated hundreds of public shelters, many of them school buildings. But officials acknowledge there’s not enough space for everyone, and they are encouraging people to shelter in place.
But that’s not always an option. In Waikiki, for example, many smaller and older multi-unit buildings are vulnerable because they were built with weaker materials and before stricter building codes required more solid construction.
"If a storm is too strong, it’s not safe inside a condo unit," Hirai said. "In a Category 4 or 5 storm, the water starts to melt the interior walls."
Harai said one reason people are unprepared is because Honolulu has never seen a hurricane in modern times. It’s never had to dig itself out of the rubble.
"Have you ever been to Guam?" he said. "They get a lot of hurricanes. Every single building is made from concrete. We don’t get hit enough. I guess we have to learn the hard way."
Gregg Nakano of UH’s National Disaster Preparedness Training Center said the time to be prepared is now.
"It’s like the three little pigs," he said. "Everyone makes a choice. Those who invest the time and money and get results in preparing for a disaster are like the pig who built his home out of bricks. Those who don’t (will) get the straw house.
"If we get a Category 4 or 5 storm, there’s going to be a lot of people who wished they had prepared," Nakano said.
