Halfway into his first term, Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell retains job performance approval from more than 2 out of 3 registered voters.
The 70 percent approval rating from 322 registered voters, as reported in the latest Hawaii Poll, is statistically unchanged from the 72 percent approval rating that registered voters gave Caldwell on the same question in February 2014. The latest poll was conducted Jan. 13-23 by Ward Research Inc. for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now. This portion of the poll has a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points.
The strong approval rating comes despite vocal opposition to Caldwell’s policies pushing through sit-lie ordinances addressing homelessness and establishing a dedicated bicycle-only lane on King Street.
The results also come as Caldwell solidifies his contentious position to support the extension of the 0.5 percent general excise tax surcharge imposed on Oahu consumers beyond 2021 in order to meet a construction budget shortfall and future needs of Honolulu’s rail project.
Caldwell said the poll results reaffirm the hard work of his administration and the city’s civil servants.
"We’re moving the needle every day on all kinds of issues, from repaving roads to restoring bus routes to making our parks look better to dealing with the homelessness issue," the mayor said Monday.
Caldwell’s high marks come with four caveats, however.
» The mayor does not do as well when factoring in all 403 of those polled, not just registered voters. In that scenario, Caldwell received only a 64 percent approval rating and a 21 percent disapproval rating. The poll has an overall margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
» A smaller portion, 59 percent, of those polled said they have a favorable opinion of Caldwell. The higher job approval ratings (both all those polled, and only registered voters) suggest more people like Caldwell’s performance as mayor than they do the mayor as a person.
» The polling was done before Caldwell stood before two legislative committees Jan. 26 and urged state lawmakers to extend the rail surcharge indefinitely, a position that’s been met with skepticism by House and Senate leaders.
» Honolulu mayors typically do fairly well in the Hawaii Poll. Former Mayor Peter Carlisle, whom Caldwell defeated in 2012, had an approval rating percentage in the 60s. Mufi Hannemann, Carlisle’s predecessor, received a 72 percent approval rating.
Rebecca Ward, Ward Research president, said mayors tend to have better approval ratings than statewide or national politicians "because city issues are more visible issues," adding, "We can see street repairs, we can see pothole repairs, whereas changes in state issues like education are much longer-term investments."
Additionally, news that the rail project is now facing larger budget challenges came to light only in December, Ward said.
"I’d say at the time of the survey, any of the problems associated with rail had not yet impacted his job approval rating, that there was enough on the positive side of the ledger, that rail problems had not begun to impact him," she said. "How long that will last, you don’t know. … It does take some time for news like that to impact perceptions."
Regarding the difference between the overall voting group and just registered voters, Ward said that even though a greater number of registered voters gave Caldwell a higher approval rating, the difference in disapproval rating was only a statistically insignificant 1 percent.
Meanwhile, 15 percent of the total group of people surveyed either didn’t know or refused to answer the question about Caldwell’s job performance, compared with only 10 percent of registered voters, Ward said.
People who are not registered voters tend to "not pay as much attention (to issues) as voters," she said.
Caldwell last year pushed forward his "compassionate disruption" campaign to deal with Oahu’s homelessness situation and got the Honolulu City Council to approve a measure that bans sitting and lying on Waikiki sidewalks. Opponents of the bill questioned its constitutionality and objected to it on the grounds that it criminalizes the homeless.
But the Council then initiated its own measure, expanding the sit-lie ordinance to about a dozen Oahu business districts, a bill Caldwell signed.
In the latest Hawaii Poll, 73 percent of respondents said they approve of the city policy that discourages homelessness through the prohibition of sitting and lying on public property.
Ward said that while the question asked in the poll homed in on sitting and lying laws, the high approval rating likely is reflective of people’s views on the city’s overall approach on dealing with homelessness.
"The general population may not really know the difference between the sit-lie ordinance and some of the other initiatives," Ward said. "My guess is that this is not only an endorsement of sit-lie, but of the mayor’s attention to homelessness in general," she said.
The Pacific Alliance to Stop Slavery has opposed sidewalk prohibitions, inducing the sit-lie measures. Kathryn Xian, executive director, said she contends the question asked by the Hawaii Poll was not specific enough about how it adversely affects homeless people directly.
"On the surface, everyone wants to get rid of the problem of homelessness," Xian said. "The general public is not aware of how abusive city sweeps are. In reality, what these (sit-lie) laws do is sweep the problems under the rug to be dealt with in other districts, outside of Waikiki and outside of the commercial business zones."
Given that enforcement of the Waikiki sit-lie ordinance did not begin until September and the Oahu-wide business district ban until December, Xian said, it’s likely poll numbers a year from now will show significantly less support for the city’s policies.
Caldwell, however, said the poll "reflects the feelings of a majority of the residents on this island that homelessness is an increasing problem and they want something to be done about it," adding, "They want their sidewalks and malls to be open for people to walk on, to do their business and get to and from work; they want their parks open for everyone and not to be taken over by any one group of people."
