Cannabis group sees pot of gold ahead

Hawaii’s medical marijuana dispensaries could generate between $12 million and $38 million in revenue in their first year of operations and as much as $80.5 million in 2018.

That’s according to the state’s first industry forecast by the Hawaii Dispensary Alliance, a trade group established in August. The forecast is based upon the current 14,074 registered medical marijuana patients anticipated to grow to between 30,000 and 40,000 in 2018.

The state Department of Health in April awarded eight licenses to businesses that can begin selling medical marijuana legally for the first time in Hawaii as early as July 15. Medical pot advocates say the dispensaries could create a lucrative new market for Hawaii with hundreds of new jobs and millions in revenues for the state.

The legal cannabis market is among the nation’s fastest-growing industries, with sales projected to grow to $7.1 billion in 2016, up 26 percent over 2015, according to the Arcview Group, which tracks the marijuana business nationwide. By 2020 legal sales are projected to exceed $22 billion.

The current revenue projections for the first year of operation takes into account how much each patient in Hawaii will likely spend — between $100 and $200 per month, or $1,200 and $3,600 a year — at the dispensaries, based on national prices. The average spent per transaction at cannabis retailers nationwide is $72 — as low as $50 on the West Coast and as high as $100 on the East Coast.

“Hawaii performs on the high-end of each of these metrics with a few dispensaries competing in each county, a maximum purchase amount of one-half pound per customer, no additional taxes and a for-profit regulatory scheme,” wrote Garrett Halydier, Hawaii Dispensary Alliance CEO.

The report also breaks out the following county revenue projections for the first year of operations based on the current number of medical marijuana card holders:

>> Big Island: 5,770 patients, $5.2 million to $15.6 million

>> Honolulu: 3,378 patients, $3 million to $9.1 million

>> Maui: 3,237 patients, $2.9 million to $8.7 million

>> Kauai: 1,689 patients, $1.2 million to $4.6 million

That means each of the eight dispensaries — one on Kauai, two on Maui, three in Honolulu and two on the Big Island — can expect to generate anywhere from $1.2 million to $7.8 million in their first year of business.

The range of revenue is “incredibly broad,” and the validity of the numbers is contingent upon the growth of registered medical cannabis patients, said Christopher Garth, the trade group’s executive director.

“For Hawaii to reap the benefits of this program, it takes active participation and cooperation from all parties,” said Garth. “The industry is so young, and we haven’t even launched over here and participation is good, but it could be better. As participation grows and as the professional and social stigma deteriorates, we have an opportunity as an industry and as a state to really elevate to a greater level and greater expectation.”

Act 241, passed in 2015, allows medical marijuana businesses to have two production centers and two retail dispensaries, for a total of 16 dispensaries statewide. Hawaii became the first state to legalize medical marijuana through the legislative process 16 years ago, but patients did not have a legal way to obtain the drug.

The law allows dispensaries to open July 15, but dispensary owners have said they will not be ready to open until late this year or early next year.