In developing a more reliable method of predicting when volcanic eruptions will occur, researchers from the University of Cambridge studied data from Kilauea Volcano to see what’s behind its frequent bulging.
The researchers employed a technique called seismic noise interferometry, which takes into account the movement of energy through a volcano and changes in the volcano’s geophysical measurements.
The results of the study were published in the Wednesday edition of the online journal Science Advances (808ne.ws/2tDlLNd).
The team drew from data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Pairing sensors located around the volcano, the researchers were able to detect energy passing between the sensors and isolate seismic noise from the volcano.
Over a four-year period the team measured changes in the velocity of seismic waves moving through the volcano. They compared this with separate data that measured changes in the angle of the volcano over time.
“We were interested in how the energy traveling between the sensors changes, whether it’s getting faster or slower,” said lead author Clare Donaldson, a Ph.D. candidate in Cambridge’s Department of Earth Sciences, in a release.
“We want to know whether the seismic velocity changes reflect increasing pressure in the volcano, as volcanoes bulge out before an eruption,” Donaldson said. “This is crucial for eruption forecasting.”
The researchers found a strong correlation between how quickly energy moved through the volcano and the amount of bulging or shrinking that occurred.
The method developed by the researchers marks an improvement over traditional use of seismology to predict eruptions.
As the release noted, volcanic seismology had previously been used to measure the small earthquakes produced as magma cracks through solid rock as it moves underground. This method failed to account for magma that flows more silently through pre-existing pathways.
The researchers said they anticipate that their findings will be applicable to hundreds of active volcanoes worldwide.
