Statewide jobless rate dips to record-low 2%

Hawaii’s unemployment rate has fallen to an all-time low of 2 percent — again.

It’s the third time in recent months the state Department of Labor and Industrial Relations has announced that Hawaii has hit that record low. But the two previous times — for November and December — the state subsequently revised upward the 2 percent number when more data became available.

Even if this latest April rate is adjusted, it remains another sign that Hawaii’s economy is still strong amid a surging visitor industry. The state’s unemployment rate remains the lowest in the nation and had been at 2.1 percent for six straight months before dipping in April. The number of people unemployed in the labor force last month fell by 100, to 14,000, its lowest level since there were 13,550 unemployed in November 1989.

“This is an indication of how tight the labor market is in Hawaii, and it’s telling you that only 2 percent of the people who are in the labor force don’t currently have work,” said economist Carl Bonham, executive director of the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization. “That’s a very small number of people who are out of work, and that’s a good thing. It’s an indication that jobs are plentiful, and we should begin to see more wage growth because employers are competing with each other for the same workers.”

The Kilauea volcano lava eruptions this month have negatively affected tourism on Hawaii island but are not expected to affect the state’s unemployment rate for May, according to DLIR spokesman Bill Kunstman.

“We do not expect the volcanic eruptions on the Big Island to have an impact on the unemployment rate because to date we have an informal tally of about 100 claims due to the volcano,” he said. “The number of claims would have to rise significantly higher to move the needle on the unemployment rate.”

In addition, Kunstman said there have been “very small numbers” regarding unemployment from the Kauai flooding in April.

Hawaii’s unemployment rate is tracking the trend of the U.S. rate, which was down in April to 3.9 percent (the lowest level since December 2000), after holding steady at 4.1 percent for sixth straight months.

The state’s labor force, which includes people who are employed, those who are unemployed but actively seeking work, and those who are self-­employed, rose last month to 685,700 from 684,650 in March. The number of people employed increased to 671,700 from 670,550 the previous month.

In a separate measure of unemployment, nonagricultural jobs fell by 200 to 661,100. Professional and business services added the most positions at 300 while the categories of construction; trade, transportation and utilities; and government each saw decreases of 300 jobs.

Bonham said it’s possible the unemployment rate could edge down a little lower before beginning to move up in 2019.

“Our forecast is for small increases in the unemployment rate as the economy starts to slow down,” he said. “There is upside potential in this economy because we’re not really building that much in the way of anything — single-family homes, condos and resorts — and we have a supercharged tourism sector right now.

“If we see some of the resorts that have been in discussion come to fruition — like if we see the Atlantis break ground this year or early next year, or if we see four or five new condo towers in the Ala Moana area break ground — we can see another leg up in construction activity that would add a significant boost. If you look at where some of the weakness has been in the last year, it’s been the construction jobs. So if that comes together, we could imagine the unemployment rate going down further.”

The unemployment rate fell in two of the state’s four major counties and remained the same in the other two counties. State and national labor-­force data are adjusted for seasonal factors, but the county jobs data are not seasonally adjusted and thus do not take into account variations such as the winter holiday and summer vacation seasons.

Hawaii County’s rate fell to 2.2 percent from 2.4 percent; Kauai County’s rate dipped to 1.8 percent from 1.9 percent; the City and County of Honolulu’s rate held at 1.9 percent; and Maui County’s rate remained at 2.0 percent. Within Maui County, Maui’s rate held at 1.9 percent, Lanai’s rate dropped to 2.1 percent from 2.6 percent and Molokai’s rate rose to 4.8 percent from 3.8 percent.