As the future of the Thirty Meter Telescope in Hawaii looks increasingly tenuous, scientists and supporters of the project are starting to grapple with what the loss could mean for the state financially and scientifically.

Contractual agreements between the state, University of Hawaii and developers don’t spell out damages if the state fails to provide access to the construction site for the TMT, which demonstrators have successfully blocked for 10 days. And TMT attorney Douglas Ing said that suing the state is not something the board of the TMT International Observatory has ever considered.

But even if Hawaii doesn’t face a lawsuit, TMT supporters say if the project fails it could have a chilling effect on future investments in science and business ventures of a similar nature, as well as damage the future of astronomy in Hawaii.

“We can continue to do good science at the existing facilities, but it won’t be the center anymore. We won’t be the world-class place in terms of capability,” said Bob McLaren, director of the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy.

McLaren said that in addition to the loss of the TMT, which represents the cutting edge of technology and scientific research, TMT protests could also deter upgrades to existing observatories on Mauna Kea. There are 13 telescopes total, 11 of which are currently operational.

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“If there is a knock-on effect so it discourages or impedes essentially any new, significant investment, then you are really into a downward spiral at that point,” he said. “There are other preliminary plans for upgrades of some of the existing facilities that would require permits. And if the prospect is that the community message is we don’t want any new activity on Mauna Kea then that is going to have a huge impact.”

TMT developers had hoped to begin moving equipment up to the TMT construction site on July 15, but hundreds of demonstrators have flocked to the mountain and blocked the road that leads up to the site. The mass protest swelled to about 2,000 people on Sunday. Native Hawaiians opposing the project say they believe construction of the TMT would be a desecration of Mauna Kea, a mountain that’s sacred in Hawaiian culture.

Gov. David Ige on Tuesday signaled that he’s hoping to de-escalate tensions and put Hawaii island Mayor Harry Kim in charge of negotiations. But it’s not clear whether an agreement can be brokered with telescope opponents who have said their goal is to stop the TMT from being built on Mauna Kea.

So far the international consortium seeking to develop the TMT has spent $450 million on the project, according to Ing. If the telescope can’t move forward in Hawaii, it could potentially be sited in the Canary Islands. But scientists say that site is inferior to Mauna Kea and would still require a permitting and approval process.

Ing said by email that the loss of the telescope would “create a black hole and discourage future business and scientific endeavors of a substantial nature in Hawaii.”

TMT supporters also worry that Hawaii could lose an opportunity to diversify its economy with more high-paying and professional jobs, which are particularly lacking on Hawaii island.

The Mauna Kea observatories currently employ about 500 people on Hawaii island including engineers, technicians, scientists, administrative workers and custodial staff. The TMT, if allowed to proceed, is expected to create about 300 construction jobs during its decadelong construction phase and provide jobs for 140 people once completed.

McLaren said that while he understands the concerns of those Native Hawaiians who believe unequivocally that siting the telescope on Mauna Kea is a cultural injury, he worries about the other issues that have been wrapped into the debate including historical wrongs and issues of Hawaiian sovereignty.

“So you get some sort of a symbolic victory maybe that’s interesting for a few days. But then what?” he said. “Then you get the big hangover of having passed up this incredible opportunity.

“To me, the prospect of not having TMT would not be as sad if I could see what the Native Hawaiian community is likely to get out of (stopping) it.”