Americans are still shuddering from the tension and the sense of deep anxiety over the international crisis precipitated by the killing of the top military official in Iran.
Given its own concerns about island-based troops eligible to be called out to war, Hawaii’s people surely join those across the nation who feel some relief: Though the danger hasn’t passed, both sides have stepped back from the brink.
In recent days U.S. intelligence sources had conveyed the location of the Iranian commander, Gen. Qassem Soleimani at Baghdad Airport. President Donald Trump on Friday gave the order to dispatch the drone that killed Soleimani and nine others, including those associated with militias and paramilitary groups.
And then late Tuesday, Iran hit back, launching about a dozen missiles that struck a pair of Iraqi military bases housing U.S. troops. Apparently by design, the strikes caused no casualties, and thus allowed Iran to save face without prompting yet another retaliation move.
Trump seemed to lower the temperature of his own response on Wednesday, which cited the lack of U.S. or Iraqi casualties and noted that “Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing.”
Soleimani headed Iran’s Quds Force and was responsible for multitudes of brutal killings, slaying hundreds of Americans among many others. What made him so dangerous to enemies of Iran — the U.S. topping that list — was his decades-long campaign of linking to client groups that served as proxies for Iran throughout the region.
He was a bad actor, to be sure, one whom the preceding Obama and Bush administrations would have been happy to have disappear from the map. The reason they did not take any opportunity presented to them was the fear of what attacking such a high-ranking figure in the Iranian regime would cause.
In fact, the final extent of repercussions is still unknown. Trump took a considerable risk, betting that removing such a master of disruption would, on balance, give him what he sought.
Among other goals was the potential for negotiating a better deal with Iran in the interest of U.S. security than had existed in the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal, the one that Trump exited soon after taking office.
Chances for that seem dim, however. Rather than weakening the position of the ruling regime in Iran, the killing — reasonably described as an assassination — unified the often fragmented political forces within Iran behind leadership. And Iraqi political leaders now are positioned to oust U.S. forces from Iraq, which is just what Iran has wanted.
Further, it’s clear that the upheaval hasn’t come to an end. The small rockets dropped within Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone late Wednesday signify that the situation remains volatile. Iran’s proxies are poised, somewhat independently, for more violence.
Still, the clearly measured retaliation Iran has so far delivered provides a desperately needed opening for a cooling-off period. So far, both sides seem unwilling to escalate further in the direction of an all-out hot war.
The question is: Has this facedown accomplished anything that merited the risk? The president might argue that it demonstrated America’s resolve, a message that other miscreants of the world — Kim Jong Un comes to mind — surely will be able to read.
Hawaii’s Democratic congressional delegation, not surprisingly, views that prospect with a jaundiced eye.
At this point continued vigilance and tightened security would be wise for state and federal agencies. Hope for a diplomatic solution should not be abandoned. But the time to exhale has not come yet — and might not, for a very long time.
