Aloha Stadium was built largely for University of Hawaii football, and it served its purpose well. Many of us remember the exuberance for the UH team in the glory years of times past, along with huge attendance figures.

In recent years, however, attendance has dwindled, and Aloha Stadium itself seems to reflect the declining community interest. The stadium is rusting and deteriorating. The plan is to demolish the stadium and replace it with a smaller one.

Since the new stadium will not be available for several years, UH is building its own stadium on the Manoa campus so it can continue to play football. The UH stadium will be quite small, yet it may turn out to be big enough to accommodate the declining attendance. If so, UH’s Manoa stadium might become the permanent home for UH football.

It seems that the state Legislature also might be losing interest in the new Aloha Stadium. In 2019 the Legislature appropriated $330 million for the project, but recently reduced the funding by nearly half — to $170 million.

Meanwhile, the estimated cost of stadium construction has grown from $350 million to $423 million. The difference between the new cost estimate and the reduced appropriation is $253 million.

The plan is to subsidize the stadium with revenue from a real estate development on the portion of the stadium property that is not needed for the stadium itself. This second phase has not been clearly defined, but the idea is for a mixed-use development that includes substantial revenue generators.

Although affordable housing is one of the top issues in Hawaii, it seems unlikely that the second phase can include a substantial amount of housing that is affordable to working families because affordable housing is typically itself subsidized.

It is concerning that the Stadium Authority has been given responsibility to develop the new Aloha Stadium project because it has no experience in the development of real estate. Lots can go wrong. Consider rail, for example.

Rail tried to use the public-private partnership model to build the section from Middle Street to Ala Moana Center. The Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation had estimated that cost would be $1.4 billion, but when the bids came in, the lowest bid was $2.7 billion. There wasn’t enough money to accept the bid, so progress on rail has been halted.

The Stadium Authority intends to use a similar public-private partnership model for the second phase of its project.

UH has indicated a low interest in the new Aloha Stadium by declining to participate in a recent “Insights” forum on Hawaii public television to discuss it. At the forum the Stadium Authority said that UH is not the stadium’s main tenant; the Aloha Swap Meet is actually the stadium’s primary revenue generator. However, the swap meet doesn’t need a stadium. All it needs is a big open space.

Questions abound as to whether the new Aloha Stadium project will work out. UH doesn’t seem to have much interest in it. The swap meet doesn’t need a stadium. The financing of the project is incomplete. The Stadium Authority doesn’t have experience in real estate development. Conditions are ripe for costs to increase unexpectedly, just as it happened with rail, and taxpayers may be expected to pay for the additional costs.

No wonder interest in the new Aloha Stadium is waning. It is worth noting, however, that the project still has its advocates. Large sums of money are involved, and as a result, developers, construction companies, construction unions and financial institutions stand to profit — even if the project ultimately flops. It’s the rest of us who stand to lose.

John Kawamoto is an advocate for social justice and a former legislative analyst.