Inflation.
The best that can be said in Honolulu is that it could be worse. But it’s going to take some personal sacrifice, and perhaps a change in outlook and spending priorities, before it gets much better.
For the less fortunate among Hawaii’s people, the depletion of federal aid that has been adding support is going to force the issue, but some belt-tightening should be in store for everyone.
The quintessential “perfect storm” has yielded the startling and stubbornly persistent rise in prices for almost everything consumers want and need to buy.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to policies of federal aid to float consumer spending while shutdowns cut deeply into employment and earning power. This general approach was needed to stave off serious economic collapse, but some economists had worried it could overheat the economy.
It’s hard to gauge what would have been the just-right amount of federal aid, whether the employment rate would have recovered quickly enough in places that, like Hawaii, suffered calamitous job loss. Regardless, the view now is that the economy was overheated in the near term, and many households postponed the necessity to make spending cuts.
As the pandemic restrictions and job cuts subsided, pair the high consumer demand with the availability of cash — from increased unemployment insurance, rent-utility assistance payments and various other pandemic aid buckets — and the resulting hot economy drove up prices.
Contributing factors also include the supply-chain problems that suppressed supply of goods, and the rising oil prices, all made worse by the war in Ukraine.
So, what could be done? It’s a tough challenge, given the complexity and the global scale of the inflationary forces. The president is releasing oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and has cited changes underway aimed at easing supply-chain disruptions at major ports. Other possible actions are matters of vigorous political debate.
But the fact remains that the entity best positioned for unilateral action that could make a difference is the Federal Reserve Bank, which is moving to tamp down inflation through raising interest rates.
The rationale there, of course, is that people tend to make purchases, especially larger ones, on borrowed money, mostly through credit-card debt. The aim is that if interest payments go up, consumers will think twice about buying more, and the upward pressure on prices would tail off.
There is a glimmer of hope: Things could be leveling off. The May report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for Oahu showed a rolling 12-month rate of 7%, down from 7.5% in March. State officials are taking the overall slowing of the price increases as a good sign.
For the neediest families, though, the curb on spending is an imperative now. The city’s Rental and Utility Relief Program is running out of the federal pandemic-relief funds that went toward grants for qualifying households, with no further applications being accepted (oneoahu.org/renthelp) after June 30.
This will be a harsh reality for some families, so the larger community of residents who have a bit more give in their household budget should offer support where they can. Food banks that help these families face the same rise in prices to stock their shelves and can use some additional donations. Other remediating actions taken by the Legislature in the past session to help lower-income residents should provide some welcome relief.
One of these is the increase in the minimum wage, House Bill 2510, which also would make the needed earned income tax credit permanent and refundable, seen as steps to help the working poor. Gov. David Ige is expected to sign this bill as he should, but has not done so yet.
However, this kind of relief would not be immediate, while high prices of gas and groceries are already here, with a vengeance.
What most consumers need are coping strategies they can apply immediately when contemplating those scary price increases — and the very real pain at the gas pump. Consolidate car trips, wherever it’s practical to do so. High gas prices are likely to stick around for a while.
Make shopping dollars count for the isle economy as much as possible. Scour the sales, buy necessities in bulk, plan dining-out opportunities carefully, but do it in brick-and-mortar businesses that hire our neighbors.
Postpone those bigger expenses to avoid adding to credit-card debt. Interest rates are going up and tend to come down slowly, so savings today may be needed for future bills, not to mention retirement accounts. Savings instruments such as bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (www.treasurydirect.gov) may be worth exploring as a hedge; seek financial advice there.
Above all, think about those who have less in general and check in with family members who could be struggling. We’re going to need some resolve, and cooperation, to weather this high-price storm.