General elections that lack a presidential race are typically quieter in Hawaii following sometimes bruising interparty primaries, but the lead-up to the Nov. 8 election has been especially low-key.
“That’s right,” said political analyst Neal Milner. “I think this one is unusually quiet.”
Colin Moore, director of the University of Hawaii’s Public Policy Center, was more blunt.
He called this year’s general election “quiet/boring.”
The Aug. 13 party primary elections were notably heated, especially involving the contentious Democratic Party races for governor, lieutenant governor and Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District, which represents rural Oahu and the neighbor islands.
“There was a lot of controversy, a lot of reporting, a lot of money spent,” Moore said. “This is just the opposite.”
By comparison, the upcoming races for governor and lieutenant governor and three of Hawaii’s four congressional seats are all but over in favor of the Democratic candidates, said John Hart, a Hawaii Pacific University communications professor.
“A lot of people are thinking, ‘It’s done, why bother?’” Hart said.
U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz received 228,595 votes in the Democratic Party primary, compared with 25,666 for outgoing state Rep. Bob
McDermott, Schatz’s Republican challenger.
U.S. Rep. Ed Case received 100,667 votes, compared with 13,449 for his Republican challenger, Conrad Kress, in their race to represent urban Honolulu.
Former state Sen. Jill Tokuda received 62,275 Democratic votes in the 2nd Congressional District primary, compared with 28,200 Republican votes for Joe Akana.
“The congressional races are done deals,” Milner said.
In the race for governor, Democratic Lt. Gov. Josh Green remains far ahead in approval ratings, endorsements and political donations with a campaign war chest
of nearly $516,000 after the primary.
He’s lying low to avoid making a mistake that could hurt his chances at winning the governor’s office, Milner, Hart and Moore said.
“If you’re the leading candidate, like in the congressional races and gubernatorial race, your interest is not to create a controversy and
create opportunities that could cost you votes,” Moore said. “If you’re in Josh Green’s position, you want to minimize opportunities to make a mistake. The one thing that could change this race is to say something that goes viral on social media.”
At the same time, Republican gubernatorial candidate James “Duke” Aiona is making his third run for governor at a time when his Republican values and messages are growing out of sync with a party that has turn decidedly right and is dominated nationally by the ideology of former President Donald Trump, Milner, Moore and Hart said.
Aiona regularly refers to his Christian values and opposes abortion and legalizing recreational use of cannabis, although he has said that overturning a
woman’s right to abortion in Hawaii is up to the state
Legislature, not the
governor.
After the Republican primary, Aiona had only $5,333 in campaign donations, which hurts his ability to get his message out, Moore said.
“He’s pretty much presenting the same message that he’s presented the last times he’s run for governor,” Moore said. “That doesn’t satisfy the Trumpist wing of the party. They want to see more fire.
“I can’t imagine a Duke Aiona who becomes a
firebrand populist,” Moore said. “If you’re running the same campaign you’ve run before — and you’ve lost twice before — you can expect the same result.”
Milner said, “Duke is not the kind of candidate that’s going to arouse a lot of
passion.”
In the primary election, Green received an overwhelming 158,161 Democratic votes.
Aiona — a two-time lieutenant governor, Circuit Court judge, deputy corporation counsel and deputy prosecutor — received 37,608 Republican votes.
Following a record, modern-day voter turnout during the 2020 presidential year, Hawaii failed to see high numbers in the August primary, a pattern expected to be repeated in November.
But those who do vote should be partisan and passionate with control of the U.S. House and U.S. Senate at stake — and with the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to leave the issue of abortion up to individual states, Moore said.
Both issues could inspire Democratic voters to show up for what is so far an otherwise lackluster general election.
On Friday, Green’s campaign issued a news release with the headline “Reproductive health rights matter.”
“That’s why Green goes after Aiona on abortion,” Moore said. “Before, you could always say that the Supreme Court has ruled. This time, abortion could hurt Aiona where it hasn’t in the past.”
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