As if we don’t have enough to worry about.
A Sept. 11 New York Times story, “China Sows Disinformation About Hawaii Fires Using New Techniques,” reported on conspiracy theories purportedly propagated by Chinese and Russian intelligence services regarding the origin of the Maui fires. Some of the posts were accompanied by AIgenerated photos portraying secret “weather weapons.”
It’s not typical, to say the least, for West Maui to be in the crosshairs of foreign intelligence agencies.
What is going on here?
For answers, I sought out University of Hawaii political scientist Colin Moore, director of the Matsunaga Institute and the former chair of the UH School of Communication and Information.
Question: Were you surprised the Chinese and Russian intelligence services would use the Maui conflagration in their social media propaganda?
Answer: I’m not surprised that the Russian intelligence services were involved since they pioneered these social media disinformation campaigns. A natural disaster of this scale presents a golden opportunity to sow division and fear. The tragedy in Maui also aligns with a narrative that Russia has been promoting on social media over the past year — that the U.S. should end its assistance to Ukraine and prioritize domestic concerns.
I did find it somewhat surprising that China appears to be involved. As the Times story points out, the Chinese have traditionally used disinformation campaigns to shape opinion on issues that directly involve Chinese interests, like Hong Kong or Taiwan. The fires on Maui, of course, have no direct bearing on any Chinese security concerns. They might be testing the waters to see how the U.S. reacts.
Q: Why do you think Maui was targeted?
A: Most Americans consider Maui to be an earthly paradise, so the fact that this iconic place suffered a horrific tragedy fit with a broader story of American decline — a narrative that has long been central to Russian and Chinese propaganda.
Natural disasters are often the target of disinformation campaigns for a few reasons. First, people are understandably emotional after a natural disaster, and this offers an opportunity to inflame tensions and manipulate opinion. Second, it is often easy to link these tragedies to the failure of American government. Third, disinformation tactics are particularly effective when they can exploit information gaps. The mainstream media and government usually cannot provide a complete picture after a natural disaster, because so much remains unknown.
Q: Who was the target audience for these disinformation campaigns?
A: The target audience is broad. This message isn’t just directed to people on Maui, but to any American who is likely to believe it. The declining power of traditional media platforms and the rise of social media has blurred the distinction between opinion and fact, which has made people increasingly open to conspiratorial thinking.
Q: Do you think Maui residents might be receptive to this kind of propaganda?
A: I doubt there will be a big audience on Maui, but it’s difficult to tell. Most likely, few people will believe the more outlandish stories, yet the campaigns can still contribute to a sense of fear or suspicion.
Q: What might be the political implications of this campaign for Maui and the State?
A: At the very least, these disinformation campaigns might make it even more challenging for government officials to gain the trust that’s necessary to have meaningful conversations about the future of Lahaina. This might delay the recovery since it is crucial for the victims of this tragedy to work with FEMA and state agencies to rebuild. In a more extreme case, they could fuel populist-style protests or campaigns that inflame tensions by reinforcing claims that state and county officials are corrupt or even complicit in this tragedy.
Q: What can we do to combat these disinformation campaigns?
A: There’s no silver bullet. The state should prioritize digital literacy programs in our public schools. Students need to learn how to assess the trustworthiness of information and how to recognize fake news. What’s more, citizens should take a stand when confronted with disinformation. If you see suspect sources being spread by friends, colleagues or family members, you should raise questions about the veracity of that information.
Finally, one of the most effective ways to counter these campaigns is to stop them from spreading in the first place. So, please, think very carefully before you share any content over social media.
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Rob Kay, a Honolulu-based writer, covers technology and sustainability for Tech View and is the creator of fijiguide.com. He can be reached at Robertfredkay@gmail.com.
