Heavy rain expected as tropical depression forms southeast of Hawaii
COURTESY NHC
The rain forecast for Tropical Depression Two-C in the Central Pacific as of this morning.
COURTESY NHC
The wind forecast for Tropical Depression Two-C in the Central Pacific as of this morning.
COURTESY NHC
The 5-day forecast map for Tropical Depression Two-C as of 5 a.m. today.
Newly formed Tropical Depression Two-C formed overnight and is heading toward Hawaii, bringing the threat of heavy rain, dangerous surf and mudslides to Hawaii this weekend and early next week.
Under the initial forecast, Hawaii island once again is forecast to get the worst of what is expected to be a strong tropical storm this weekend, just one week after the island was devastated by Hurricane Lala.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its first bulletin for the system today at 5 a.m., placing the center of the depression about 960 miles east-southeast of Hilo. It was packing maximum sustained winds of 35 mph while moving west-northwest at 16 mph.
Forecasters expect gradual strengthening over the coming days, with the system reaching tropical storm intensity later today.
“The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment for the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian islands,” weather officials said.
Heavy rain from the storm is expected to hit the Big Island late Saturday night, spreading west to the rest of the state Sunday and Monday.
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Under the current five-day forecast, the storm would have maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, just under hurricane status, on Saturday night as it approaches the Big Island from the southeast. The current track, however, has it far south enough that only the southern end of the Big Island has a 10% chance of getting tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more.
But forecasters caution that the storm’s check can change as the storm develops and the public “should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.”
Weather officials also emphasize that severe weather impacts can stretch far beyond the center of the storm.
The Big Island is expected to bear the brunt of the system’s moisture, with anticipated rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches and isolated maximums up to 15 inches. The rest of the state could see 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized areas receiving up to 5 inches.
Weather officials warn that the incoming deluge poses a risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in steep terrain and communities still recovering from Lala.
Swells generated by the system are also expected to build through the weekend, bringing hazardous surf and dangerous rip currents.
While no coastal watches or warnings are currently in place, meteorologists noted that watches may be required for portions of the state tonight or Friday.
Ahead of the storm, tradewinds across the state will weaken today, allowing afternoon sea breezes to spark showers in some leeward areas before easterly winds build back late Friday.
Showers will shift primarily to windward and mauka areas into Saturday before widespread rainfall increases from east to west Saturday night through Monday.
Local emergency management agencies continue to monitor the system closely and advise residents across all islands to review disaster plans and restock basic supplies.
City officials encouraged the public to sign up for HNL Alert, the city’s emergency notification system at HNLAlert.gov or text HNLALERT to 888777.
