Lowell weakens slightly; on track to pass west of Niihau late Monday

UPDATE: 11:25 p.m.

Lowell remained a major hurricane but its winds decreased slightly Thursday night as it continued passing over 500 miles south of Hawaii.

At 11 p.m., Lowell had maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and was centered 595 miles south of Lihue and 555 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, moving west at 9 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend 140 miles out, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

The Category 3 hurricane is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next few days as it starts turning north toward the western-most Hawaiian islands perhaps by Saturday night, forecasters said.

The hurricane is forecast “to move faster to the north or north-northeast late Sunday into Monday. This track would bring the center of Lowell near or just west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday,” CPHC forecasters said. “The guidance envelope has made a westward shift on this advisory, seemingly due to a delayed northward turn.”

While it is still too soon to determine the exact track of the hurricane, forecasters cautioned, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.

“Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane plan and supply kit in place,” they said.

By late Monday, when it is now projected to be just west of Niihau, Lowell is expected to have 115 mph maximum sustained winds.

Farther east from Hawaii, Hurricane Karina continued to weaken and had 100 mph sustained winds about 1,025 miles east of Hilo, moving west-northwest at 9 mph.

It is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone by Monday far northeast of Hawaii and dissipate by Tuesday.

5 p.m.

Category 4 Hurricane Lowell is expected to substantially weaken as it encounters southwesterly shear, but is still forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it travels near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and early Tuesday, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Forecasters say it is still too early to determine the hurricane’s track, but Lowell is expected to bring storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.

At about 5 p.m. today, Lowell was about 495 miles south-southwest of Hilo and about 590 miles south of Lihue. Lowell had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and was moving west at 9 mph.

Lowell will gradually decrease in forward speed within the next day or two then turn northwest and north this weekend, according to CPHC. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds extend 140 miles out.

“The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days due to a developing mid- to upper-level trough north of the Hawaiian Islands, which is reflected in a forecast slower forward speed,” according to CPHC. “After 48 (hours,) the trough will likely create a break in the ridge that should cause Lowell to turn northward by 72 (hours) and accelerate northward to north-northeastward after 72 (hours.)

”This track would bring the center of Lowell near or just west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday.”

The National Weather Service’s high surf advisory for the south- and southeast-facing shores of Hawaii is in effect through 6 p.m. Friday. Large breaking waves of 12 feet on the south and southeast shores of all islands are expected.

A wind advisory is in effect until 6 a.m. Friday with northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of up to 50 mph forecast from northwest Hawaii island to Oahu.

“Winds this strong can tear off shingles, knock down tree branches, blow away tents and awnings and make it difficult to steer, especially for drivers of high profile vehicles,” according to NWS. “Watch out for falling tree branches when walking or driving. Make sure tents and awnings are secure or take them down. Be prepared for power outages.”

NWS also issued a tropical storm warning through Monday for Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals.

About 1,085 miles east of Hilo, Hurricane Karina remained steady while carrying maximum sustained winds of 105 mph with higher gusts at 5 p.m. today. Karina is moving west-northwest near 9 mph and expected to continue in that direction over the next couple of days. Forecasters expect Karina to steadily weaken and dissipate by Tuesday, hundreds of miles northeast of Hilo.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 40 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds extend up to 140 miles.

“In about 3 days, Karina’s proximity to Hurricane Lowell may also help induce a turn back toward the west-northwest,” according to the forecast. “Despite this more westward turn, Karina is not expected to be a threat to the Hawaiian Islands.”

Off the southern tip of Baja California, Marie has strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with increased maximum sustained winds near 100 mph and higher gusts. At 5 p.m. today, Marie was about 470 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Marie was moving west-northwest near 9 mph and expected to continue in that direction through Tuesday when it will be a weakening tropical storm. Hurricane-storm-force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds extend up to 185 miles.

11 a.m.

Category 4 Hurricane Lowell is forecast to remain as a powerful hurricane as it approaches near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday, bringing high winds, heavy rainfall and storm surges to portions of the state early next week.

“Lowell is moving over very warm waters with high oceanic heat content, and the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for Lowell to maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly during the next several days,” forecasters said. “Although it has experienced a bit more easterly shear than expected today, the hurricane has been resilient.”

At about 11 a.m. today, Lowell was located about 465 miles south-southwest of Hilo and about 585 miles south of Lihue. Lowell maintained maximum sustained winds of 140 mph with higher gusts and was moving west near 10 mph. The hurricane is expected to continue in this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days then turn toward the northwest and north this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

“A gradually slower westward motion is expected during the next couple of days,” according to the forecast. “Then, a mid- to upper-level trough over the northern Pacific is forecast to dig southward and erode the steering ridge. As a result, Lowell is predicted to turn sharply toward the north or north-northeast this weekend, and then accelerate northward early next week. This track should bring the center of Lowell near or just west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday.”

Farther east of the Hawaiian Islands, Hurricane Karina has weakened as it moves westward.

At about 11 a.m. today, Karina was located about 1,135 miles east of Hilo, carrying decreased maximum sustained winds of 105 mph while moving west at 10 mph. Karina is forecast to turn west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Karina is expected to continue weakening over the next 48 hours, but will remain a hurricane within the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

“Another complicating factor for Karina’s track is for it to potentially interact with Lowell early next week, which may pull Karina a bit more westward than the last advisory had suggested,” according to the forecast. “Global models seem to hint at this possibility, so the latest official track forecast reflects a slight westward shift, however Karina is not expected to be a threat to the main Hawaiian Islands.”

Karina is forecast to become a post-tropical system by Monday before dissipating.

Off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Marie was moving westward near 9 mph and expected to continue in a west to west-northwestward motion through this weekend.

At about 11 a.m. today, Marie was located about 440 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, carrying maximum sustained winds of 90 mph with higher gusts. Marie is forecast to grow stronger within the next day or so then gradually weaken this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to to 45 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles.

EARLIER COVERAGE

Major Hurricane Lowell continues to churn through the Central Pacific south of the Hawaiian Islands as a powerful Category 4 storm, keeping island emergency officials and forecasters on alert for potential impacts early next week.

As of 5 a.m. today, the center of Hurricane Lowell was located about 450 miles south-southwest of Hilo and about 605 miles south-southeast of Lihue, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Carrying maximum sustained winds of 140 mph with higher gusts, the storm is moving westward at 10 mph.

Hurricane-force winds reach outward up to 40 miles from Lowell’s center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Forecasters expect Lowell to maintain its major hurricane intensity for the next several days while over warm ocean waters and in low wind shear conditions. The system is projected to continue its westward track with a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days. However, a significant shift in the weather pattern is expected over the weekend, when an approaching high-altitude atmospheric trough weakens the atmospheric ridge currently steering the storm.

“This will cause Lowell to turn sharply northward or north-northeastward this weekend and then accelerate generally toward the north early next week, passing near or west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands by day 5,” CPHC forecasters said.

While confidence in the precise long-range track details remains low due to potential model adjustments, “Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night,” they said this morning.

Weather officials emphasized that while it remains too soon to determine exact land impacts, the hurricane could bring storm surge, damaging winds and rainfall impacts to parts of the state early next week.

No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect for the main Hawaiian Islands. However, forecasters urge residents across the state to monitor official updates closely over the Labor Day holiday weekend and review their emergency plans and supply kits.

Even as the storm remains hundreds of miles away, its immediate effects are already creating hazardous conditions across the state. A high surf advisory remains in effect until 6 a.m. Friday for south and southeast shores of all Hawaiian Islands. Swells generated by Lowell are spreading northward across the island chain, producing large breaking waves up to 10 feet and life-threatening rip currents.

A strong high-pressure system positioned far north of the state is interacting with Lowell’s low pressure to the south, creating a tight pressure gradient that is driving powerful tradewinds across the islands. A wind advisory remains in effect until 6 a.m. Friday for Oahu, Maui County and the Big Island.

National Weather Service forecasters expect east winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph for Oahu, and east winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph across Maui County and the Big Island, particularly through mountain passes, central valleys and over higher terrain.

A small craft advisory also remains in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters until 6 a.m. Friday, with east winds of 20 to 30 knots, gusts up to 40 knots and seas ranging from 7 to 12 feet.

Meanwhile, two other major systems are active in the Eastern Pacific.

Major Hurricane Karina was located about 1,195 miles east of Hilo at 5 a.m. today, packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph as a Category 3 storm while moving west at 12 mph.

Hurricane-force winds reach outward up to 35 miles from Karina’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.

Karina is forecast to track west-northwestward over the next couple of days while steadily weakening, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. An upper-level atmospheric trough is expected to pull Karina northward away from the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend before it degenerates into a post-tropical system early next week.

Farther east off the coast of Mexico, Hurricane Marie was located about 410 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 5 a.m. today. Carrying 90 mph maximum sustained winds and moving west-northwest near 10 mph, Marie is expected to strengthen slightly over the next day before beginning a gradual weakening trend over the weekend. Marie poses no threat to Hawaii.

Hurricane-force winds reach outward up to 40 miles from Marie’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

Weather from Kauai to Maui counties will feature mostly sunny skies alongside windy conditions, with east winds blowing at 20 to 35 mph. Scattered showers are expected over windward slopes and mauka areas, with isolated showers reaching leeward locations. Daytime high temperatures will range between 86 and 91 degrees. Tonight will turn partly cloudy and remain windy, with northeast winds of 20 to 35 mph, gusts up to 55 mph, scattered windward showers and overnight lows from 72 to 77 degrees.

For the Big Island, today will bring mostly sunny but windy conditions, with east winds of 15 to 30 mph and scattered showers. Daytime highs will reach 86 to 91 degrees. Tonight will be partly cloudy and windy with east winds of 15 to 30 mph, scattered showers and lows dropping to between 71 and 76 degrees.