Hurricane Nolo ‘meanders’ south of Hawaii island, bringing showers and gusty winds

Hurricane Nolo was parked south of South Point this morning with its outer bands of rain continuing to hit parts of Hawaii island but forecasters expect it to start moving west soon, avoiding a direct landfall.

As of 5 a.m., Nolo was a strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and was stationary, centered 145 miles south of South Point and 345 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Nolo is a relatively compact cyclone with hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more extending up to 45 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more extending up to 140 miles.

“Nolo continues to meander to the south of the Big Island of Hawaii,” CPHC forecasters said. It is forecast to start moving west this moving with “increasing forward speed,” they said. “On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will remain well south and southwest of the main Hawaiian islands.”

A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Hawaii island, as does a tropical storm watch for Maui County. A flood watch is in effect through this afternoon for both Hawaii and Maui counties. The National Weather Service has also issued:

>> A high surf advisory east shores of Oahu and Kauai through 6 p.m. Sunday, and for east and southeast shores of Maui, Molokai and the Big Island for the same time period. Waves from 9 to 12 feet are expected.

>> A wind advisory for Kauai County and Oahu through 6 p.m. Sunday with east winds 25 to 35 mph and gusts to 55 mph expected. “The strongest winds are expected on Oahu, especially over and downwind of terrain,” the advisory says. “Winds this strong can tear off shingles, knock down tree branches, blow away tents and awnings and make it difficult to steer, especially for drivers of high profile vehicles.”

Nolo current forecast track has it moving several hundreds of miles west of Kauai by about Monday.

“The track models are in good agreement on keeping the core of Nolo well to the south and southwest of the main Hawaiian islands during the next several days,” CPHC forecasters said this morning. “The hurricane is showing some ill effects of easterly shear and dry air, and its lack of forward motion could be resulting in some upwelling of cooler water.”

But as Nolo starts moving west, they said, it will move over warmer water and encounter less wind shear so it will strengthen to a major hurricane as it passes hundreds of miles south of the smaller islands. It will start moving northwest on Sunday.

Although no landfall for Hawaii is in the forecast, CPHC still warns of the following possible impacts from Nolo:

>> Wind: Tropical storm conditions are occurring and hurricane-force gusts are possible in portions of the warning area in areas of steep terrain. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning today. Gusts to tropical storm force are occurring in Maui County in areas of steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and gusty winds are possible for all of the Hawaiian islands through the weekend.

>> Rain: For the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island, Nolo will produce additional rainfall totals 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches, bringing storm totals to 10 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall could produce significant, life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For the western portions of the Big Island, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected. For eastern Maui, additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected, bringing storm totals to 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of high terrain. Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, maximum storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

>> Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the 1 to 3 feet above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast and will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

>> Surf: Swells generated by Nolo are affecting exposed east and south shores of the Big Island and are expected to spread westward and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.