Now that Hawaii has legalized medical cannabis, should recreational cannabis for adults be next? The Legislature is expected to give serious consideration to that question in the 2023 session. It will work from detailed recommendations prepared by the Dual Use of Cannabis Task Force, created in 2021 to provide options for legalizing recreational cannabis.

Hawaii lawmakers must carefully weigh the risks and be skeptical of promised rewards.

The state’s tightly regulated medical marijuana dispensaries opened in 2017. The high costs of licensing and operations, including establishing secure indoor growing facilities, have made it difficult to compete with the illicit “gray market,” which offers much cheaper unregulated products (of questionable provenance), all untaxed.

By some estimates, while Hawaii’s cannabis market is worth $240 million, only 21% of cannabis purchases in Hawaii in 2021 were made a legal dispensary.

It’s reasonable to assume the recreational marijuana industry in Hawaii could face a similar situation, unless the regulatory structure is significantly changed to reduce incentives for gray-market operators by making it easier and more profitable for local business owners to enter the trade legally.

In fact, a committee of the task force recommended changes with this goal in mind. Among them: Each “plant-touching” element of the supply chain would have its own licensing structure, allowing a proprietor to invest in any or all of the links. Any restrictions “should not be stronger than the laws and restrictions that currently govern alcohol breweries, distilleries, distributors, and retail locations.” An adult could grow up to 20 plants without a license.

Whether this will curb gray-market sales is by no means assured. Other states like California and Colorado have found that broad legalization gives illicit producers cover to expand their operations.

Lawmakers will have to consider the consequences of a significant increase in marijuana production, a likely increase in use — in public spaces, among children pilfering from their parents’ stash, etc. — as well as possible rise in overall health risks and impaired driving. They will have to consider whether Hawaii has the ability to identify and restrict the sale of products with dangerously high concentrations of THC, the main psychoactive component of marijuana.

Also, lawmakers should be dubious of rosy estimates of tax revenues from a legal marijuana industry, a hugely speculative effort if ever there was one.

There’s no doubt that marijuana is a popular drug. Is that reason enough to legalize it completely? That’s the fundamental question.