U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono’s landslide victory over former Gov. Linda Lingle for U.S. Senate was built on a coordinated get-out-the-vote campaign by Democrats that exceeded expectations.
Hirono was favored by a double-digit margin in the Hawaii Poll and other public opinion surveys before the election, but her 62 percent-to-37 percent rout on Tuesday night was far more sweeping than political analysts predicted.
The Democrat won in 50 of the 51 state House districts, dropping only the district in the predominantly Mormon Laie region where former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential candidate, performed well.
Democrats identified about 70,000 infrequent voters statewide who would likely be open to voting for Hirono. Andy Winer, a Democratic strategist, said these voters received multiple mailers and telephone calls. Thousands also received personal visits by activists at their homes.
"We pushed them pretty hard. We really went hard after the infrequent voting Democrats," he said. "This particular effort was probably the most coordinated and focused get-out-the-vote campaign that we’ve ever had."
Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz directed the Democrats’ coordinated campaign, which was designed to help Democratic candidates down the ballot and take full advantage of Hawaii-born President Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.
On Tuesday, allies of the state’s leading Democrats — Gov. Neil Abercrombie, Schatz, U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye, U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, former Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard and Hirono — were assigned House districts and directed to help drive turnout.
"A much higher proportion of infrequent voters went out and voted," Winer said.
The turnout for Hirono was impressive considering that overall voter turnout statewide was 62 percent, down from 66 percent in the last presidential election in 2008.
Lingle, who had won two campaigns for governor, was thought to be the Republican with the broadest statewide appeal. But her staggering 25-point defeat raises doubts about whether she can be a viable candidate for statewide office in the future.
In raw numbers, Lingle lost to Hirono by more votes — 108,452 — than former Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona lost to Abercrombie for governor in 2010 — 65,413 — and former Mililani state Sen. Randall Iwase lost to Lingle for governor in 2006 — 93,596.
Lingle’s campaign advisers did not return messages seeking comment on Wednesday.
Other political analysts, speaking privately, said Lingle faced considerable obstacles running for Senate in a presidential election year with Obama on the ballot. Some also said that Lingle was still being judged for her difficult last few years as governor during the recession.
But some were surprised that, after a polished primary campaign, Lingle and her advisers made several mistakes during the general election, including an unnecessary public spat with Inouye over whether Lingle would be a partner to the senior senator and whether he would retain his power in the Senate even if Republicans took control.
The Lingle campaign may have also undermined its credibility with supporters by insisting until the end that the election was a "statistical dead heat" and by describing independent polls as "wacky" and an attempt to "hijack" the election.
"Realistically, it is difficult for anybody to come back from a loss like that," said Dylan Nonaka, a Republican strategist. "But anything is possible."
General Election 2012: Final Results
