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Computer models conflict over return of tradewinds

  • NOAA / NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    This composite satellite image taken late Wednesday morning shows a band of clouds north of the islands that could bring scattered showers to Oahu, Kauai and Maui in the afternoon and evening. Another band of moisture is lingering over the Big Island after passing over the western islands Tuesday night.
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There’s a possibility cooling tradewinds could return next week. But computer forecast models are at odds over whether the high pressure system that brings tradewinds to Hawaii will build or be blocked by another weather system north of the islands.

“It’s hard to say with any kind of confidence at this point. If it does happen, it will probably be Monday or Tuesday, but it may not be that strong,” said Matthew Foster, a metrologist with the Honolulu office of the National Weather Service said Wednesday. “We’re looking for more consistency in the models.”

Forecasters hope to get a better idea by Friday about the chances of a return of the tradewinds.

In the meantime, expect the muggy weather, light winds and temperatures into the 90s to continue through the weekend.

The National Weather Service expects light tradewinds to disappear Thursday into the weekend as another weather system moves over and north of the islands.

Winds could become southeasterly Thursday, but will not be strong enough to shift the vog plume from Kilauea volcano over the western islands.

Forecasters expect sunny to partly cloudy mornings with the possibility of afternoon showers developing over leeward areas and mauka slopes as sea breezes blow moist air over land and afternoon heating causes clouds to form.

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