If you believe money runs political elections, consider the Abercrombie vs. Ige race.
The Democratic primary election in the summer of 2014 rewrote Hawaii political history books, as David Ige, a low-profile Pearl City Democrat, trampled Neil Abercrombie, a flamboyant Hawaii Democratic Party mainstay.
If the political cliche, money is “the mother’s milk of politics” is true, then after the Abercrombie-Ige battle, local political analysts would have to ask, “Who’s your momma?” because Ige was outspent 10 to 1.
Calculations of that election’s campaign-finance reports show Ige spent just $584,488 on the primary, or roughly $3.72 per vote. Abercrombie spent more than $5.5 million — or about $75.79 per vote.
Incumbents usually win reelection, and Hawaii candidates are no different. In fact, before the Abercrombie loss, the last time a Hawaii incumbent governor lost reelection was 1962, when GOP Gov. William Quinn lost to Democrat John A. Burns. For Abercrombie, the loss in the 2014 primary was all the more galling because it was in the primary election with only fellow Democrats voting.
Now comes the 2022 gubernatorial election, and an argument can be made that this is a local election that is relatively free of political baggage that would encumber the race or its candidates.
Lt. Gov. Josh Green, never considered an ally of Ige, for instance, is running for the top job and has collected the most money.
The Honolulu Star-Advertiser reports Green raised $774,616.24 between July 1 and last Monday night’s filing deadline.
Vicky Cayetano has $475,274.35, including $350,000 that she lent to her campaign. Former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell raised $344,861 during the same period and reported $717,678 cash on hand.
As for baggage, Caldwell is toting more than most. As former mayor, Caldwell was the biggest supporter of the disastrously late and overbudget rail project, and left office with an approval rating of 31%, according to a Star-Advertiser poll taken by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy survey in 2019.
Vicky Cayetano will have to consider being the wife of former two-term governor, Ben Cayetano, as both positive name identification and political baggage. She is a successful, independent businesswoman, who says she will step back from her position as president of United Laundry Services’ Hawaii division, which has hotel and hospital clients across the state, as the campaign heats up.
Cayetano has a glittering range of financial supporters ranging from Paul Kosasa, CEO of ABC Stores, to Honolulu resident Dialta Alliata di Montereale, described as an “Italian aristocrat” who is battling for inheritance rights to an estimated $1 billion estate in Italy. Both Kosasa and Alliata di Montereale made $6,000 contributions to Cayetano. Neither, however, is considered a major political force in the same way you would look at the head of a labor union.
Green is something of a self-made political force, with no intrinsic political base. As an emergency room doctor, Green has fit in as the state deals with the COVID-19 crisis and also has been involved in helping with Honolulu’s homeless problems.
State ballots for the governor’s race will be mailed out starting July 26.
While Green appears strong today, an argument can be made that baggage included, any of the three could win the primary race.
Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at 808onpolitics@gmail.com.
