Undecided votes critical in tight race for Hawaii lieutenant governor

The Honolulu Star-Advertiser Hawaii Poll shows the five-way race to become Hawaii’s next lieutenant governor is tight, but a huge chunk of undecided voters means every candidate still has a path to victory.

The poll included some 320 likely Democratic primary voters, who were asked about their choice for lieutenant governor.

Former state Sen. Jill Tokuda has a slight lead at 13%, followed by former Honolulu City Council Chairman Ikaika Anderson (9%); former Honolulu mayoral candidate Keith Amemiya (8%); Sherry Menor-McNamara (7%), a first-time candidate who is president and CEO of the Hawaii Chamber of Commerce; and 3% for state Rep. Sylvia Luke, chairwoman of the powerful House Finance Committee.

More importantly, a whopping 60% of respondents were undecided.

“Anybody who calls the (race for ) lieutenant governor now is just wild guessing,” said political analyst Neal Milner. “Everybody is still in the game. With 60% undecided, it’s too early to know.”

The Hawaii Poll was conducted Jan. 24 to 28 by telephone by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C. The responses regarding the lieutenant governor’s race have a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

The job of lieutenant governor has no clear day-to-day responsibilities but previously has served as a pathway to the governor’s mansion and the U.S. Senate.

Lt. Gov. Josh Green is now running for governor, with soaring approval ratings in the Hawaii Poll. In 2018, Green beat Tokuda — his Senate colleague who had formerly been chairwoman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee — with just over 30% of the vote. Tokuda received just over 27% of the vote in what was also a crowded five-way race.

It takes only a plurality of votes to win the Aug. 13 Democratic primary for lieutenant governor before moving on to the Nov. 8 general election. So far there are no Republican candidates.

In Hawaii, candidates for lieutenant governor and governor run independently and not as a ticket. Historically, after the primary, they join forces for the general election.

But House Bills 1417 and 1420 would amend the Hawaii Constitution to require that each gubernatorial nominee appoint a person from the same political party as a running mate for lieutenant governor in the general election.

The results of the Hawaii Poll at this point, just as in the crowded 2018 lieutenant governor’s race, mean “you can’t meaningfully say that any candidate has an advantage,” said Colin Moore, director of the University of Hawaii’s Public Policy Center.

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The Hawaii Poll should offer encouragement to some candidates and concern for others, Moore said.

“This race is won on name recognition,” he said.

Anderson, the former Council chairman, calculated the Hawaii Poll’s margin of error and said in a statement to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that, “I’m pleased to be in a statistical tie for first place this early on. I have been personally visiting communities on Kaua‘i, Maui County, and Hawai‘i Island, and bridging connections to our state’s people. With the communities’ support and confidence behind me, my standing appears strong, six months before Primary Election Day.”

Menor-McNamara, Moore said, “should be the person most happy to see these results. It shows that her candidacy is viable and this will help her. Sherry should be thrilled.”

In a statement to the Star-Advertiser, Menor-­McNamara said, “This poll tells me one thing: With 60% of voters undecided, this race is wide open. I’m not a career politician and I knew we would have our work cut out for us going up against those who have been in power for decades. Our campaign is building grassroots support on every island with a message that Hawaii needs a new path forward.”

“Sylvia Luke,” Moore said, “is likely to be very disappointed that she’s at the bottom of the list. She has been in the paper a lot and is one of the most powerful people in the Legislature.”

But Luke showed no sign of disappointment.

“I am happy to see that so many voters are open to hearing more from all of the candidates before making their choice,” she said in a statement. “I have seen a tremendous positive response to our campaign since we entered the race three months ago, and have been uplifted by the volunteer and financial support we have seen.”

Moore said Amemiya “is the candidate in this race who most recently ran an islandwide campaign (for mayor) so you would expect that he would do better, that more of that support would translate.”

Amemiya said he is counting on those Oahu votes to help lead him to victory.

“I was very fortunate to receive strong support in the mayor’s race with nearly 150,000 votes on Oahu alone, and I’m confident that our message of service and lifting people up will inspire voters across the state to support me in this race,” he said.

At the top of the crowded field, Tokuda said she will remain focused on listening to the people of Hawaii.

“I am humbled that the polls show me as someone that people can relate to and trust,” she said. “I’m traveling throughout Hawaii listening and talking to families just like mine — trying to make it work with multigenerational families living under one roof, taking care of relatives, kids in school and just worried about the future.”