If Baldwin is finally going to beat Leilehua in the HHSAA state playoffs, chances are it’ll be a low-scoring game.

The fifth-ranked Bears face the Mules for the fourth straight year in the postseason when the two meet at War Memorial Stadium tonight at 6.

In the previous three meetings, the Mules have outscored the Bears 123-61, scoring at least 34 points in each game.

For Baldwin head coach A.J. Roloos, the difference this year is a physical defense that has allowed 9.5 points a game and shut out four of 10 opponents.

"Our defense is one of the best we’ve had," said Roloos. "It’s definitely carried us."

The Bears closed their regular season with a shutout of Lahainaluna, which will play in the Division II state tournament.

Linebackers B.J. Wilhelm-Ioane (6-1, 222), Tevita Malafu (6-3, 207) and Keoki Namauu (6-1, 238) form one of the best groups in the state.

Junior Pasoni Tasini (6-4, 248) is the driving force on the line and senior Daena Sato (5-7, 150) anchors the secondary.

However, the true X-factor for the Bears might be their kicker. Senior CeeJay Santos, who doubles as a receiver and kick returner, has drilled eight field goals, including makes from 53 and 50 yards.

His ability to blast ball after ball into the end zone on kickoffs adds another key dimension to the Bears’ strong special teams.

"That’s a big plus for us," Roloos said. "Any (field-goal attempt) inside the 40 is good, (and) putting the (other) offense on the 20-yard line (on a kickoff) and making them go 80 yards."

Leilehua enters the state tournament ranked third in the state and winners of seven of its last nine games.

The Mules’ offense, which struggled in a 16-7 win over Aiea in mid-September, has picked it up lately, averaging 27 points in its past five games.

Junior Kenan Sadanaga (5-7, 155) has helped the Mules show signs of the same offense it had under player of the year Andrew Manley, throwing for 362 yards against Mililani and 373 against Kahuku.

Sadanaga has taken nearly every snap at quarterback the past two games, but senior Jordan Kalaau (5-9, 170), who as recently as three games ago was the starter, has attempted more than 100 passes this season.

"I’ll still mix it up," Leilehua coach Nolan Tokuda said. "Both of them are capable of doing the things we want to do. Whatever the gameplan we’ve come up with for Baldwin’s defense, we’ll play the guy we like."

With Kahuku out of the mix, Leilehua is the most accomplished playoff team from the OIA in recent years. The Mules won the OIA and state titles in 2007 and reached the state final in ’04 and ’08.

It’ll be a tough task to get back this season as the winner tonight takes on second-seeded Saint Louis, the state’s No. 1-ranked team.

"Previous years have no indication on how we’re going to play this year," Tokuda said. "We’ve been to Maui three years in a row and it helped that our seniors and some juniors are familiar with the routine and the things they have to do to get themselves prepared."