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CBO: 18 million more uninsured if health care law killed, not replaced


    House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wis., accompanied by House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy of Calif., left a Jan. 10 news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington. Premiums and the number of uninsured would soar under a Republican bill scuttling President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul that Congress passed last year, lawmakers’ nonpartisan budget analyst estimated today, in a report underlining the GOP’s risks as it starts a fresh push to dismantle and replace that statute.

WASHINGTON >> Premiums and the number of uninsured would soar under a Republican bill Congress passed last year scuttling President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul, lawmakers’ nonpartisan budget analyst estimated Tuesday in a report underlining the GOP’s risks in its fresh push to dismantle and replace the health law.

The Congressional Budget Office report wrote that under that 2016 repeal bill, premiums for policies bought from online marketplaces established by Obama’s law would rise up to 25 percent a year after enactment of the GOP measure. They’d about double by 2026.

There’d also be 18 million more uninsured people a year after enactment and 32 million more by 2026, the report projected.

The numbers served as a flashing yellow light for this year’s effort by President-elect Donald Trump and congressional Republicans to annul Obama’s law and — in a more complex challenge — institute their own alternative. While Republicans have produced several outlines for how they’d recraft Obama’s 2010 statute, they’ve never united behind one plan despite years of trying and there are many unknowns about what will happen in insurance markets while the GOP effort is underway.

The report also became immediate political fodder for both sides in what is expected to be one of this year’s premier battles in Congress.

Trump seemed to complicate that fight over the weekend when he told The Washington Post that a forthcoming GOP plan would provide “insurance for everybody.” In contrast, some congressional Republicans have used a more modest description, saying plan will offer “universal access.”

The 2016 bill that CBO analyzed did not replace Obama’s law with a GOP alternative, which Republicans have insisted will be an integral part of their health care drive this year.

Because of that omission, Donald Stewart, spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the report “assumes a situation that simply doesn’t exist and that no one in Congress advocates.” AshLee Strong, spokeswoman for House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., called the estimates “meaningless” because they ignored plans for legislation and regulatory actions by the incoming Trump administration aimed at revamping how people could obtain coverage.

Even so, Republicans have cited last year’s bill — which Obama vetoed — as a starting point for their 2017 drive to erase his law. Finding unity among Trump and GOP lawmakers on what a new plan should look like is expected to be a challenging task

Democrats used the report as ammunition to assail the Republican health-care push.

“Nonpartisan statistics don’t lie: it’s crystal clear that the Republican effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act will increase health care costs for millions of Americans and kick millions more off of their health insurance,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said in a written statement that used the law’s formal name.

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  • Soon, Trump will announce that he wants(ed to) start his own insurance company with his billions, that would guarantee “health insurance for everyone”. But, that he can’t. Because the press would call it a conflict of interest. Which would be fake news!

    • The affordable care act should be amended to offer a base plan for all Americans.
      Any plan that exceed the minimum plan would be taxed as income – which could be used to pay to provide the base plan. Union, government, and those with higher coverage could keep their plans…

      • Hardly likely… Republicans find something abhorrent about “socialism”.

        We’re talking privatization big time here. Republicans don’t want to spend anything on health care.

    • Republicans are already leading the country into a crisis and a mess. The clowns who lead that Party and who dance to the tune of the rich and foreign powers who would use American assets and give nothing in return are a danger to America. Reform Obamacare, do not drop it.
      If Obamacare is ended without any replacement the Republicans will be exposed for what the are: enemies of America’s middle and working classes. Kiss off trump’s re-election. 2018 will see Democrats retake the Senate.

        • Give it up sarge22(loser)! where you been? StarAdvertiser cut you off again because your comments wasn’t civil? Trump impeachment!

      • Go run for president then allie! Go do it now so you can change America! But before you go first go to Mexico, turn the country around 180 degrees to the point were millions of illegals will be running back home to Mexico. You said you want to help the world, now’s your chance! Take the education you got here, forget about you student loans and go to Mexico. Besides, they have free health care! Go allie go!

    • “Who cares.” If you’re one of the 18 million you care. Anyone who gets a freebie, it doesn’t matter if it’s justified or not, suffers a loss if it’s taken away. Obama and the democrats put Trump and the republicans in a tough position by giving away stuff in their march towards socialism. From what I understand many, of the 18M pay virtually nothing and are currently subsidized the the few that pay something, which is one of the reasons that the premiums are rising so quickly. Republicans have been saying that they can replace Obamacare with something better. I’m not sure they can.

      • AhiPoke: “Republicans have been saying that they can replace Obamacare with something better”. Ahi, where is the replacement? for six years the GOP made that statement (promise). the GOP has nothing, right? why not? six years of “BULL CRAP” and you took all in, like sarge22! I’m not “trolling” just stating the facts. are you now thinking: yeah, six years the GOP should have a replacement in their back pocket! have a good one.

        • buttery, perhaps you should read my post before you respond. My last comment was to question if republicans can replace Obamacare.

        • to AhiPoki, reread my post, it is not a slam against your post, I even stated “I’m not trolling” and have a good one. Just adding further information that seem to allude some commenters the Fact that for six years the GOP has stated they have a plan for replacement,so where is it? Finally, I agree with you comment, it is spot on, just adding to it. have a good one.

    • ryan02 gets it: “18 million more uninsured? Who cares. That’s a small price to pay, to be able to spite Pres. Obama – which is what’s really important here.” Exactly.

      Now what bothers me is that our classy and fabulous leader just promised “insurance for everybody.”

      Trump must mean “insurance” (nudge-nudge wink-wink) that doesn’t actually cover anything. Now that would be brilliant.

      Just like not paying his taxes, Trump could set up a program that offers insurance with such high deductibles and copayments that it is meaningless, then his billionare buddies running United Healthcare and Aetna and Health Care Service Corp. and Anthem and Humana and Blue Cross & Blue Shield can pocket all of those premiums and not pay any claims.

      All Donald needs is a classy slogan… let’s see:

      “Trumpcare. Where imagination is key to your coverage.”

      “Here at Trumpcare, our bottom line is the bottom line.”

      “With Trumpcare, you can kiss your all your Care goodbye.”

      “Trumpcare. It’s just like a Trump University only deadlier.”

  • “Fake News” . Caution ,caution Fake News & “Political Fodder”.These Stats prove to be mere Assumptions! However,what Democrat Chuck Schumer is doing is striking fear in the Libs.Hilhila! The Democrats have failed and lost so badly they are resorting to “Scare Tactics”. What A Cheap Shot!
    This is how I look at it. They are afraid of the Republicans and PE Donald Trump succeeding in all his policies,including Repealing this Atrocity The Un-ACA.
    Man! The Democrats Better hope Not.
    Because If and when PE Trump succeeds,(and He will) with bringing jobs back(already Started) getting Health care for Everyone & yes ,Affordable winning the War on Terrorism. Re-Building the infrastructure, reducing the Debt and running the Government with more fiscal responsibility & efficiency. Let’s not forget? Reining in China’s misdeeds of manipulating their currency.
    When PE Trump Get’s this done?
    This will truly be the end of the Democratic Party because the people Of this country (including the libs) will look back and see “JOBS” & All this Prosperity and the success of this administration….and yet? Only then will the People know this fact that. The Democrats played no integral part or contributed to any part of it. Then the people will know that is was a combination of “All Talk and No Action” “Scare Tactics”.

      • Tip of the ice-berg. it’s very likely to be 40+ million because many are not counted and stay under the radar. But then again, no one knows the real numbers because the Feds completely lost track of the real numbers.

        20+ million illegals is the typical number the media releases to the public but oddly their released numbers seem severely off because I have traveled across many sanctuary areas of California where the unofficial count of illegals, admitted by the various surrounding cities, is closer to 10+ million in each major county (these are unofficial numbers) because most stay under the radar and the US Census only manages to count those that aren’t afraid to be counted which is significantly lower than the unofficial numbers that are tracked by the welfare and Medicaid/Medi-Cal recipients! It’s kindof like the unemployment numbers, theres the U-6 unemployment rate, U-5 unemployment rate and then there’s the official unemployment rate the media releases to the public which is completely bogus! LOL

        Based on my findings and how many major cities/counties there are in the USA, the true number is likely 40+ million illegals and countless millions more if you factor in anchor babies which are pretty much nothing but illegitimate US citizen children born to illegals in the USA for the sole purpose only to game the US welfare system.

  • Typical of Chuck E. (Cheese) Schumer. Conjur up a report that only takes into account half the scenario to use as a political polarizing wedge. I guess he never heard the word “replace”. This is what you get when you have selective hearing.

    What a joke.

  • many “red States” are satisfied with the ACA. wait for the backlash. the GOP had six years to have a replacement for just this moment. this will come to a head because the GOP doesn’t and will not have a plan equal or better than the ACA. the GOP is working on a replacement plan as they go along, just like RAIL!

  • A conservative friend wanted to make a bet with me that new plan would be “much better” and cheaper than my ACA one. How much was I paying? I said it was less than $200. He was surprised. It took the wind out of his sails as he’d obviously been hoping for a much higher number. He then asked “Well, how much were you paying before?” I said nothing, because I didn’t have insurance. He couldn’t believe it. I told him that until the ACA I’d never had insurance as an adult. So for the most part I didn’t go to the doctor. He didn’t know what to say. I told him I expected any new GOP plan would be at least $100 more than a comparable plan. He admtted he didn’t see how a new plan would be cheaper than what I was now paying, so there was no bet. What I really think will happen is that plans will go up much higher, and I’ll have to pay more for a worse plan than what I have now.

    • You claim to not have a car, a house or health insurance but you can afford to waste at least $10 a month for a SA subscription? Either you’re full of $h!t or you are one of the illegal transplants that landed in Hawaii after you got a legal ID from a sanctuary state like CA.

    • Good for you, PoiDoggy. Just remember that the rest of that premium that you are not paying is being paid for by the rest of us. Yeah, but I know you don’t care. You got yours.

      And then there are the millions of others who do not have subsidized premiums who are paying full list price.

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