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Theresa May survives confidence vote in British Parliament

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Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May left a cabinet meeting, Tuesday, at Downing Street in London. May narrowly survived a vote of no-confidence in Parliament today, but the result did little to quell the turmoil gripping the British government over her plan for leaving the European Union, coming a day after she suffered a historic defeat on the blueprint.

LONDON >> Prime Minister Theresa May narrowly survived a vote of no-confidence in Parliament today, but the result did little to quell the turmoil gripping the British government over her plan for leaving the European Union, coming a day after she suffered a historic defeat on the blueprint.

The House of Commons voted 325-306 to reject an opposition motion of no confidence. If successful, it almost certainly would have ousted her from power and probably would have forced a general election, adding still more layers of uncertainty in a country fast approaching the March 29 date for leaving the bloc — yet unable to agree on how to do so.

On Tuesday, Parliament dealt May a crushing defeat, voting 432-202 to reject her painstakingly negotiated agreement with Brussels for leaving the European Union, or Brexit — by far the biggest losing margin for a government on a major issue in modern times.

Yet, a day later, more than 100 lawmakers from May’s own Conservative Party who had opposed her Brexit bill voted to support her government, as did legislators from the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland who also hate May’s plan.

The head-snapping sequence of events leaves May — the leader of an intractably divided party, with a split Cabinet, no parliamentary majority and no clear path forward on Brexit — more politically wounded than ever, yet somehow still standing.

Ordinarily, a prime minister would be expected to resign after suffering a big defeat on a signature bill, but Brexit has rewritten the rules of British politics. And once again, May, who has defied many predictions of her political demise, lived to fight another day.

Her ability to soak up political punishment and survive is an acute frustration to Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, who began the no-confidence motion by reminding lawmakers that Tuesday’s vote was “the largest defeat in the history of our democracy,” adding that May was leading a “zombie government.”

Ian Blackford, the leader of the Scottish National Party’s lawmakers at Westminster, accused the prime minister of presiding over a “political collapse,” adding that, in its pursuit of Brexit, the country was “on a path to self-destruction.”

But with the no-confidence motion having failed, attention will turn rapidly to whether May has a credible Plan B for Brexit. Time and again, the prime minister vowed today to somehow forge a deal that could win passage, yet when pressed she declined repeatedly to offer any specifics about what might change.

Nonetheless, there is growing speculation that she could seek a postponement of the March 29 deadline for Brexit, and suggestions that she will ultimately have to compromise with Labour lawmakers who want to keep a permanent customs union with the European bloc.

In a call with business leaders Tuesday evening, the chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, tried to reassure them that Britain could avoid a disorderly departure without any agreement and raised the possibility of an extension to the negotiating period under Article 50 of the European Union’s treaty.

May today was careful not to rule out the prospect of extending the negotiating period, but noted that the bloc would agree on such a course only if “it was clear there was a plan that was moving toward an agreed deal.”

And while May insisted that any Brexit plan must allow Britain to have its own trade policy, something that is impossible inside a customs union, the justice secretary, David Gauke, described that policy as “our starting point” and told Sky News, “I don’t think it’s a question of being boxed in.”

On Monday, May is required to return to Parliament with proposals on how she intends to proceed, and that will give lawmakers the opportunity to add alternative suggestions — ranging from a customs union or a second referendum to a no-deal departure. Those could be voted on next week, giving some indication of whether there is any sign of a growing consensus among lawmakers.

The risk for May is that, if she fails to move fast enough, she could lose control of Brexit to a newly emboldened Parliament.

There are problems looming for Corbyn, too, because now that he has failed in his attempt to secure a general election, he will be under pressure to endorse plans for a second Brexit referendum. A lifelong critic of the European Union, Corbyn has so far resisted such calls, but today, 71 Labour lawmakers gave their support to the campaign for a so-called people’s vote.

May’s one card is that her opponents are focusing on an array of contradictory objectives, demonstrating that more than 2 1/2 years after Britons voted to leave the European Union, their politicians have failed to reach any consensus on how to do so.

Many Conservative Party critics want to scrap a key part of May’s agreement, the “backstop” proposals to ensure goods flow freely across the Irish border after Brexit. This would keep the whole of the United Kingdom tied to many European rules until an agreement can be reached on a detailed trade deal that would remove the need for frontier checks. But the European Union has steadfastly rejected that approach.

Some would be happy with a more abrupt break from Europe than the one the prime minister has negotiated with Brussels. By contrast, pro-European opponents want a softer Brexit than she has proposed, keeping close ties the bloc, while others still hope for no Brexit at all.

Although there is no agreement among lawmakers on a way forward, a large majority of them want to exclude the possibility of leaving the bloc without a deal. They fear that could create chaos at British ports, cause shortages of some food and medicines and plunge Britain into a recession. That points to moves to request a delay to Brexit.

EU officials have reacted with exasperation to the confusion in London and so far are unwilling to reopen the legally binding part of the deal that May negotiated. After her overwhelming defeat Tuesday, they see little point in offering concessions until there is a plan that could get through the British Parliament.

That was acknowledged by a former head of the British foreign office, Peter Ricketts, who wrote on Twitter that May had “cashed all her chips” with European negotiators, adding that there “won’t be any more help coming now.”

President Emmanuel Macron of France predicted today that the British would “ask for an extension to negotiate something else.”

European officials have said they could work with May on something new, if she is willing to scrub out some of her “red lines” and agree to keep closer ties to the bloc.

The first vice president of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans, quoted the British writer C.S. Lewis to suggest that there might yet be a fresh start for Brexit.

“You can’t go back and change the beginning,” he wrote on Twitter. “But you can start where you are and change the ending.”

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