The threat of COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus discovered in China late last year, emerging in the Aloha State is a reality.

Anticipating a hunkering- down time, toilet paper and other essentials have been flying off shelves at Costco, N95 masks are in short supply on Amazon and public events are being canceled.

Are we overreacting? What exactly should the average citizen do in these times?

To answer these questions and others, I consulted with Dr. Duane Gubler, one of the top infectious disease researchers in the nation and someone who knows Hawaii well. Formerly chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Dengue Branch and director of the Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, he is currently with Duke University- National University of Singapore Graduate Medical School. Prior to that, he was professor and chairman of the Department of Tropical Medicine at John A. Burns School of Medicine in Honolulu.

Question: Already there have been school shutdowns on the mainland, not to mention Italy and other areas under quarantine. Should we be prepared for a similar kind of action in Hawaii?

Answer: It is always good practice to be prepared for such events if and when local health authorities recommend them. However, the horses are already out of the barn. It is clear that the virus has spread widely in the country and will be difficult to contain. My advice now is to focus on how to mitigate the impact of the disease by treating it like a severe flu and giving diagnostic and treatment priority to high-risk groups like the elderly, people with comorbidities (additional medical conditions) and compromised immune systems, etc. It will decrease the quality of health care if we overload the clinics and hospitals with people who are at low risk.

Q: What is the risk for an individual with a healthy immune system?

A: Individual risk is dependent on several factors, including age, overall health of the individual, presence of comorbidities, the strain of virus and early diagnosis and management of the illness, all of which can influence disease severity.

Q: How should a family prepare for COVID-19?

A: Do all of the things recommended by your health department or physician, e.g., frequent hand washing, keeping hands away from face, coughing hygiene, etc. In addition, it is wise to practice social distancing, cut back on unnecessary travel and stock up on essential food, medicines and water until we know how this pandemic will play out.

Q: Based on the mortality rate, how many people might succumb if an epidemic occurs on Oahu?

A: I wouldn’t even try to hazard a guess since there are so many factors that can influence the outcome of the epidemic. If it occurs some weeks to months from now and the public health and medical communities and the public use that lag time to prepare, it should be very manageable and the numbers low. I think the current national response is being driven too much by the public and by panic. I know that everyone with respiratory symptoms wants to be tested, but in an epidemic that is simply not possible.

Q: Should I acquire an N95 mask?

A: Yes, if you can find N95 masks, I would buy some, but don’t wear a mask unless you develop respiratory symptoms. Masks are more important to decrease the spread of virus from infected persons to others.

Q: Should I consider international travel?

A: Unnecessary inter­national travel is not recommended at this time.

Q: Should I ask my employer if it’s possible to telecommute?

A: If there is confirmed local transmission, that may be reasonable, depending on your job.

Rob Kay writes about health, technology, sustainability and travel. The creator of Fijiguide.com can be reached at robertfredkay@gmail.com.