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Diapers, cereal and, yes, toilet paper are going to get more expensive

ASSOCIATED PRESS / MARCH 23
                                A shopper pays for packages of toilet paper and hand towels at a Costco warehouse in Lone Tree, Colo.
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ASSOCIATED PRESS / MARCH 23

A shopper pays for packages of toilet paper and hand towels at a Costco warehouse in Lone Tree, Colo.

Procter & Gamble is raising prices on items like Pampers and Tampax in September. Kimberly-Clark said in March that it will raise prices on Scott toilet paper, Huggies and Pull-Ups in June, a move that is “necessary to help offset significant commodity cost inflation.”

And General Mills, which makes cereal brands including Cheerios, is facing increased supply-chain and freight costs “in this higher-demand environment,” Kofi Bruce, the company’s chief financial officer, said on a call with analysts.

These price increases reflect what some economists are calling a major shift in the way companies have responded to demand during the pandemic.

Before the virus hit, retailers often absorbed the cost when suppliers raised prices on goods, because stiff competition forced retailers to keep prices stable. The pandemic changed that.

It created chaos and confusion in global shipping markets, leading to shortages and price increases that have cascaded from factories to ports to stores to consumers. When the pandemic hit, Americans’ shopping habits shifted rapidly — with people spending money on treadmills and office furniture instead of going out to eat in restaurants and seeing movies at theaters.

This, in turn, put enormous pressure on factories in China to produce these goods and ship them across the Pacific in containers. But the demand for shipping outstripped the availability of containers in Asia, yielding shortages that resulted in higher shipping costs.

The Consumer Price Index, the measure of the average change in the prices paid by U.S. shoppers for consumer goods, increased 0.6% in March, the largest rise since August 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

People who have received unemployment benefits or stimulus checks are able to spend that money on consumer goods like toilet paper and diapers.

Many of those who have kept their jobs during the pandemic also have been able to increase their savings. That means they have disposable income to spend on more expensive items.

It is likely that retailers, from big-box stores to grocery stores, will pass on the majority of the increased costs from suppliers to consumers.

However, businesses will still have to keep price increases reasonable and in line with competition.

“Businesses will tend to pass on what the consumer can stomach,” said John Ruth, chief executive of Build Asset Management, an investment advisory firm. “You’ll notice some price increases, but your hamburger isn’t going to double in your local favorite drive-through.”

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