For Trump foes, Democratic gains may remain elusive in 2018
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Rhea Powell poses for a photograph on Independence Mall in Philadelphia. The massive turnout for last month’s women’s marches protesting the policies of the Trump administration have led to calls for sustained political activism to help Democrats get back in power.
Passionate protests against Donald Trump’s presidency have swelled the ranks of Democratic activists, but their new enthusiasm faces a hard reality: Republicans remain well-positioned to retain their grip on power in the 2018 elections.
While Republicans hold only a slim majority in the U.S. Senate, Democrats occupy most of the seats up for election in two years. That means they must play defense against Republicans, especially in 10 states that Trump won.
In the U.S. House, Republicans will be aided by favorable district boundaries that were drawn to maintain GOP political dominance. In some cases, the congressional districts were gerrymandered to pack high numbers of Democratic voters into just a few districts as a way to create a greater number of Republican-leaning seats.
“Democrats are extremely fired up right now,” said Sam Wang, a Princeton University neuroscientist and statistician who has developed a statistical model for analyzing partisan gerrymandering.
But for Democrats to win back Congress, Wang said it “would take an extreme event. The question is, are we seeing something that’s headed towards that?”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting 59 Republican-held House seats in 24 states as it builds toward the next election. Those include 23 districts where Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton defeated Trump and various others that Republicans took away from Democrats in recent years.
It also is beginning to place full-time paid organizers in 20 of those districts, something the committee says it has never done at this early stage.
The Democratic committee is touting a surge of 675,000 new supporters in January, many of whom joined the cause amid nationwide protests against Trump’s policies. Whether that energy can be sustained through 2018 remains to be seen.
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Jesse Hunt calls the Democratic optimism a “pipe dream.” Hunt notes that Democrats also held high hopes for 2016, but unseated just four of the 15 freshmen GOP representatives they targeted.
Democrats would appear to have history on their side. The president’s party has lost ground in Congress in all but two of the initial midterm elections since the Civil War. The exceptions are 1934, when President Franklin Roosevelt was guiding the country through the Great Depression, and 2002, when President George W. Bush was leading the response to the 2001 terrorist attacks.
In the 2010 election during the middle of President Barack Obama’s first term, Republicans flipped more than five dozen seats to take control of the U.S. House away from Democrats. Republicans also won control of a majority of state legislative chambers and governors’ offices that year.
They then used that statehouse power to help cement their control in Washington by redrawing congressional districts following the 2010 Census.
In 2012, the first election under those new maps, Republicans won a 33-seat majority in the U.S. House even though Democratic candidates across the country received 1.4 million more votes than their Republican opponents.
Although court rulings have since forced the redrawing of some districts, many of those boundaries remain in place for the 2018 elections.
Wang estimates Democratic congressional candidates would need to win the 2018 nationwide vote by 7 to 12 percentage points to capture enough seats to win control of the House. The last time Democrats enjoyed such a spread was 2008, he said.
But circumstances have changed since then.
“There are just more districts at the moment that have a natural tilt toward Republicans, partly because of Democratic geography and partly because of Republicans drawing districts with an eye toward helping pick up more seats for their party,” said Michael Barber, an assistant political science professor at Brigham Young University who has studied the effects of gerrymandering and incumbency on congressional elections.
Former Attorney General Eric Holder recently signed on as chairman of the new National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which is attempting to better position Democrats for the 2021 redistricting by winning key statehouse races and court cases in the coming years.
“There’s a lot of work to be done,” said Iowa-based Democratic consultant Jim Kottmeyer. “Redistricting is a real problem, but the bigger problem is frankly that Democratic votes are just way too concentrated in too small of geographic areas” — big cities, instead of America’s many small and mid-size towns.
The realities of the electoral map have tempered the optimism of some newly invigorated Democratic activists.
Since Election Day, Philadelphia physician Rhea Powell has marched with other women in Washington, protested in her home town against the potential repeal of Obama’s health care law and joined in airport demonstrations against Trump’s immigration restrictions. She has even enrolled in a program that trains potential Democratic candidates.
But she also understands that victories may be difficult, at least in the near term.
“I am worried that because of the impact that gerrymandering has had on many of the districts that it may be hard to make big changes” in the 2018 elections, Powell said.
Other new activists believe it’s possible to win even with unfavorable districts.
“I think there’ll always be barriers … (but) we’re not just going to sit back and shake our head and say, ‘OK, well, I guess that’s it,’” said Mary Clauss, a small business owner from suburban Chicago who recently marched in Washington and now is organizing other women in her community.
Ironically, Democratic chances for huge congressional gains may depend on Trump’s success at enacting his agenda. The Republican wave in 2010 was fueled by voter backlash against Obama’s policies, headlined by the health care law that quickly became known as “Obamacare.”
“Politicians sometimes think that they made promises and their voters want them to keep them, but the historical pattern is the opposite — that public opinion moves against the direction of policy change,” said political scientist Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University.
“So the more Donald Trump is successful — and the Republican Party is successful — in moving policy to the right, the bigger the backlash is likely to be.”
33 responses to “For Trump foes, Democratic gains may remain elusive in 2018”
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Gerrymandering is the root cause of our current divisive politics. IF districts were drawn with equal amounts of Democrats/Republicans then the politicians running wound moderate their rhetoric because they have to represent both constituencies to get elected. As is is now, there is no moderation because of the extreme tilts of the districts. Most Americans have values that embrace both parties. but the voice of moderates is ignored as direct result of gerrymandering.
Equal number of Democrats and Republicans that’s gerrymandering too by trying to even things out. We need mandatory busing of voters.
In this case, Obama was the gift that just kept giving for the GOP. He moved the corrupt Democrat Party to the far Left alienating the public. There were high expectations for him, and he actually was successful at pushing through his Liberal agenda through executive fiat. For that, the voters punished Obama and the corrupt Democrat Party by voting for the GOP in most states, losing hundreds of seats in Congress and ultimately the Presidency. If the voters see progress by President Trump, the corrupt Democrat Party will be in further trouble as they will lose more seats nationally. Here in Hawaii, we can only hope.
@ Maimonides
Very well stated!
Thank you BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA for DESTROYING your party for years to come!
Oh & for making Chicago your home.
Aloha!
@ Maipono
Sorry Patriot???????? for “Maimonides” …dang iPhone!!!
DANG iPhone again!!!
????????? <<<<
W T H
?????????? AmericanFlag emoticon
After the unemployment rate goes up and the US falls into a recession, the GOP will be voted out.
IRT MaiPono, excellent post. Your evaluation is accurate and it will take some 2 to 3 National elections for any adjustments for the Democrats.
I don’t know how long, but for the forseable future if you let Warren,Wasserman-Schultz and Soros rule and influence your politics bringing violence, more dishonesty, socialism to the party, you may never gain ground. I know you think you can control the country from/though California and New York, but the rest of America flatly says “”go to #$%&”
P.S. constant fake news by your banner news outlets and headlines like “California will vote to secede” don’t make Americans happy.
IRT Koleanui, completely agree with your post. This morning CNN stated that the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals decided against the Jan. 27, 2017 Exec. Order on immigration from the 7 Muslim controlled Countries. CNN presented a Big “Fake News”. The truth, is that the 9th agreed to hear the case from Washington State and Minn. with all the parties, including the U.S. Justice Dept. and various States to submit their arguments to the 9th for consideration, hearing, and an expedited decision by end of the week, period.
Good One Maipono! At least the AP got that one right,The Democrats will become not only “Elusive” they will become Obsolete! And if the MSM doesn’t change their agenda of constantly attacking Pres. Trump,they too will become obsolete!Just glad the people voted to change this destructive path…….One Size Fits All Socialism.
Now sure if y’all read this story,by The Daily Caller: “Errors from the Press are Piling -up in the opening weeks of The Trump Administration”.
Reuters, WASHINGTON POST, NYT along with usual suspects. Read it to find out what The Fake News Media are up to.IMUA!
IRT MoiLee, agree with your post. Hey, did you read about Senate Minority Leader Schumer and 6 Democrats voting against Ms Elaine Chao as the Secretary of Transportation? Ms Chao is the wife of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. What is the Democrats doing? They must have completely lost their political bearings. And, did you see or hear CNN spread a huge “Fake News” that the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals decided against President Trumps Jan. 27, 2017 E.O. temporarily halting visa’s from the 7 Countries with ISIS control.
Not just Obama but Pelosi (you have to pass Obamacare to find out what is inside of it), Podesta and Wasserman-Schulz with their leaked emails revealing how they manipulated the Democratic party process so that Hillary would be the nominee over Sanders, Hillary and her lies to help cover up the Benghazi massacre of Americans, her home brew email server, etc. Add the violence of the anti-Trump protests in Berkeley and all this is not going away anytime soon before 2018 for Demos to make inroads against Trump and the Repubs. Agree Trump has a chance to make good progress (ie he can cancel the Oahu rail funding and release an independent federal audit report of the failed project to the nation and the world) but Trump made a big mistake with his overreaching blanket ban of people from certain Muslim countries. If he fixes it quickly (ie allow Iraqi and other interpreters have helped the US military who have already been vetted to be immediately allowed into the US) the damage to Trump will be minimal. However if his racist factions are allowed to rule his presidency that can reach to the level of impeachment, then the Demos have a chance in 2020.
the more the dimm’s protest and act like keiki’s the more unpopular they become and will soon be totally irrelevant.
right now the republicans are the adults in the room.
aloha!
Google: Constitutional Convention. Efforts to rewrite the US Constitution are underway in state houses across the nation. This is a bi-partisan topic that is not getting national media coverage.
IRT Boya_Jr, sorry, a National Constitutional Convention will neva happen.
I really don’t think the Dems have too much to worry about with the 2018 elections. After a year of Trump (two weeks have made it crystal clear what to expect), most of the people that voted him in, will realize what they did. A big thank you has to go to the Republican and Democratic National Committees for not giving the American people a real choice. Neither the Don or Mrs. C should be leading this country.
While Trump may have disillusioned many, and rightfully so, if the democrats don’t turn the lesson provided into one learned, they may very well continue to see disappointing mid term results.
Condemnation of protests designed to silence differing opinions would be a good start, as well as pointedly avoiding rapid descents into abusive exchanges.
Most voters are initially willing to listen to thoughtful discussion, but withdraw quickly into political shells when needlessly berated, resulting in the closing of partially open minds.
The democrats would be smarrt to disapprove of these daily “protersts “. Most people are sick of it and the more they do it, the more I push for Trump. If Trump is as bad as the democrats say, then let him fail on his own.
So you’re saying we should just accept whatever Trump says and does? Are you that myopic?
No, but the Demos made a big mistake when they allowed their protest in Berkeley against Trump’s executive orders to get violent. It is up to the protest organizers to weed out the violent factions of their group. Trumps blanket ban against all Muslims from a few Middle East countries was overshadowed by the violence at Berkeley and used as a talking point to divert attention away from Trump’s bogus ban that was based more on racism rather than safety of the US.
democrats are proudly hyping february 16, when hilary clinton will speak at a post office function.
a far cry from previous profit venues. her speaking fee will be a few stamps mailed to her nearly defunct family money laundering cartel.
with her serious declining health issues demanding the constant presence of her two doctors, bardack and okunola, it will be an adventure just getting clinton through the may 26 speaking engagement at wellesley.
The actions and agenda of democrats over the last 8 years is what got President Trump elected in the first place… now the actions of radical democrats are going to cause even more voters to turn against them and elect more republicans in the next election two years from now. “Give them enough rope and they will hang themselves” is something the democrats might want to consider and reign in the more radical members of their party.
They have become the party for fanatical anarchists. They are doing everything that they claimed Trump supporters would do if Hillary were elected and they’re proving to be the biggest bunch of hypocrites I’ve seen in modern history. Obama sure did a number brainwashing his worshipers.
Now all the Democrats need to do is make sure the illegal alien protestors become citizens by next year.
Why do party members get all the spoils and most other people get nothing.
Why did you Demis not get fired up before the election?
Now that the whole country is witnessing anarchy by Dems & Liberals they will remain a political minority for a very long time. Law abiding citizens do not condone or tolerate protests that turn to rioting and will defeat the party that all these fanatical anarchists support at the voting booth. It’s become absolutely disgusting to see all this nonsense from them happening day after day.
“Poltical minority”?! Is that why Hillary won the popular vote and Trump didn’t.
Keep backing the violent protests and the squashing of free speech that is opposite of your ideology and you will keep losing seats Dems. If there is one thing that voters detest, it is rioting and violence against peoples first amendment rights.
Bits of breaking news here & there have Chelsea Clinton as the next Great_White_Hope!
Woooooohooooooo
Tie Chelsea to the Clinton Foundation and it’s all over for her.