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Japan’s population shrinks by 444,000

TOKYO >> The Japanese government last month released a rough calculation of vital statistics for 2018, revealing that the number of deaths minus births, or natural population decline, totaled 444,085, exceeding 400,000 for the first time.

Meanwhile, the estimated number of children a woman will have in her lifetime stood at 1.42, declining for the third consecutive year.

With the population expected to continue its downward trend, child-rearing support and labor productivity will continue to be key issues.

The number of deaths in 2018 was 1.36 million, up 22,085 from the previous year, the highest recorded since the end of World War II. In stark contrast, the number of births stood at 918,397, down 27,668 from the previous year, marking the lowest since statistics began in 1899.

The result: the largest natural decrease in population ever, a drop of 49,753 from the previous year.

In 1989, the Japanese population saw a natural increase of 458,208. It took a downward turn in 2005, when it declined by 21,266.

The total fertility rate in the country has dropped by a 0.01 percentage point each year since 2015, when it stood at 1.45. By prefecture, Okinawa had the highest ratio at 1.89, while Tokyo had the lowest ratio at 1.20.

While there was a slight uptick in births by mothers 45 or older, the birthrate declined for all groups of mothers age 44 and younger. The average age of women who gave birth to their first child was 30.7, the same as in the previous year.

The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry said that the decline in births is partly due to the decrease in the population of 25- to 39-year-old women, who account for about 85% of births, and the trend toward marrying later in life.

Marriages reached a postwar low of 586,438, down 20,428 from 2017. The average age of those who married for the first time was 31.1 for men and 29.4 for women, the same as in the previous year.

The government has set a goal of a 1.8 fertility rate, which is calculated on an assumption that young people will marry according to their wishes and have as many children as they want.

Going forward, in October, the government plans to introduce free preschool education and child care.

To make up for the shrinking labor force, the government aims to improve labor productivity through revised laws related to workstyle reform that went into effect in April.

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