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COURTNEY CROW/NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE VIA AP
Specialist Meric Greenbaum, right, works at his post on the trading floor today. Stocks are falling sharply again on Friday, and this time Treasury yields are joining in the latest swoon for Wall Street.
U.S. stocks fell to session lows and Treasuries rose after the U.K. told its citizens in Ukraine to leave the country, adding to worries over long-simmering tensions with Russia.
The S&P 500 slid 1.6% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped more than 2%, following today’s steep declines amid bets on faster Federal Reserve tightening. Treasuries caught bids, with the 10-year yield falling six basis points to about 1.96%. Oil climbed, with brent crude hitting $95 a barrel for the first time since 2014.
Bonds and stocks were pummeled Thursday by the surprise jump in U.S. inflation last month that stirred hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed Chair James Bullard, who said he supports raising rates by a full percentage point by the start of July, and may consider a move in between scheduled policy reviews. Other Fed officials, though, are in no rush to raise rates prior to their meeting next month, nor does a 50 basis-point March move appear likely yet.
Inflation concerns weighed on U.S. consumer sentiment, which declined further in early February to a fresh decade low as views about personal finances deteriorated. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 61.7, the lowest since October 2011, from 67.2 in January. Consumers expect an inflation rate of 5% over the next year, up from last month’s reading of 4.9% and the highest since 2008.
“Investors are trying to dissect the path and speed of higher interest rates and less monetary support,” Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally, wrote in a note. While markets can respond well to slow and steady tightening, “given the lack of clarity on the Fed’s thinking near-term, investor angst may persist,” she said.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned a rush to tighten monetary policy could harm the region’s economic rebound, and ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane defended his view that record euro-area inflation is set to ease without tougher action. The euro fell.
Markets are struggling to adjust to the withdrawal of pandemic-era stimulus as officials fight inflation. While the Treasury curve steepened slightly on Friday, the broader flattening trend suggests investors expect slowing economic growth as the Fed increases rates and reduces its balance sheet to curb price pressures.
“Expect the bumpy ride for markets to continue and risk/volatility to be higher” in the first half, wrote Stuart Kaiser, head of equity derivatives research at UBS Group AG. “Investors will need to price chances of an overshoot and multiple months of data to be convinced the inflation peak has been set.”
Here are the main market moves:
STOCKS
>> The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 2 p.m. New York time
>> The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.4%
>> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%
>> The MSCI World index fell 1.4%
CURRENCIES
>> The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
>> The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1352
>> The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3571
>> The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 115.39 per dollar
BONDS
>> The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 1.96%
>> Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 0.30%
>> Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 1.54%
COMMODITIES
>> West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.9% to $94.27 a barrel
>> Gold futures rose 1.2% to $1,858.90 an ounce
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