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Ignacio heads toward Hawaii; Jimena growing to Category 5 storm in E. Pacific

Craig Gima
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COURTESY CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
At 11 p.m. Friday, Hurricane Ignacio was 660 miles east-southeast of Hilo.
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SSAI/NASA/JAXA/HAL PIERCE
Rainfall associated with hurricane Ignacio was measured by the GPM core observatory satellite's Microwave Imager (GMI) Thursday. GPM's GMI instrument found that rain was falling at a rate of over 60 mm (~2.4 inches) per hour south of the hurricane's eye.
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NRL/NASA/NOAA
NASA-NOAA's Suomi satellite captured this infrared image of Hurricane Jimena Friday. The strongest part of the hurricane appears in red.
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COURTESY: CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
The Friday 5 p.m. forecast shows Tropical Storm Kilo growing to a major hurricane next week as it moves away from the main Hawaiian islands.
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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
At 11 p.m., Jimena was about 1,220 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 9 mph.
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Hurricane Ignacio was 660 miles east-southeast of Hilo.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
At 11 p.m.

State officials urged residents to be prepared as Hurricane Ignacio continued on track to threaten the state early next week, and Hurricane Jimena grew to a major hurricane Friday in the East Pacific.

At 11 p.m. Friday, Ignacio was 660 miles east-southeast of Hilo and about 870 miles east-southeast of Honolulu with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. It was moving west-northwest at 9 mph and is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds Saturday, before wind shear and cooler waters begin to weaken it.

Hurricane-force winds extend 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend 80 miles.

Surf from Ignacio will generate large swells along the east- and southeast-facing shores of the main Hawaiian islands this weekend. It may become very large and dangerous by late Sunday, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

The Big Island is under a high surf advisory in effect from 6 a.m. Saturday to 6 p.m. Sunday.

"A new east swell from Hurricane Ignacio … will continue to build through the weekend, approaching warning levels late Sunday," the National Weather Service said. "Warning level surf for east-facing shores is possible early next week, but is highly dependent upon the strength and track of Ignacio."

Surf of 5 to 8 feet is expected Saturday, increasing to 10 to 14 feet late Sunday, forecasters said.

The latest forecast track for Ignacio has it moving west-northwest of the islands through midweek.

Further east but headed toward the Central Pacific is Jimena, which strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds Friday night and is expected to grow into a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds in excess of 155 mph by Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Jimena is expected to remain at Category 5 strength for about 48 hours before weakening.

At 11 p.m., Jimena was about 1,220 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 9 mph. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, according to forecasters with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Jimena is still too far away to estimate its impact, if any, on Hawaii’s weather. The latest forecast track has it entering the Central Pacific — still far from Hawaii — on Tuesday as a major Category 3 hurricane. 

On Friday afternoon, Gov. David Ige signed an emergency proclamation ahead of Hurricane Ignacio’s expected arrival early next week. The proclamation activates the major disaster fund set aside by the Legislature for disaster relief, allows easier access to emergency resources at the state and federal levels, and allows the suspension of certain laws for emergency purposes, according to Ige’s office.

“We understand the public is fatigued from experiencing four major approaching storms so far this season, but we urge people to take the weekend to prepare their homes and families for impacts that could be felt statewide,” said Doug Mayne, Hawaii’s administrator of Emergency Management. “Severe weather associated with Ignacio is expected, and with Jimena not far behind, we need to ready ourselves and our loved ones as much as possible with the time we have."

Hurricane Ignacio continued on a path that could take it over or close to Hawaii at hurricane strength early next week. The National Weather Service forecast for Honolulu says "tropical storm conditions (are) possible" starting Monday night and through Tuesday.

The latest forecast track has Ignacio as a Category 1 hurricane as it passes north of the islands Tuesday and Wednesday.

“The cone of uncertainty, which is the potential track given historic track error, includes the entire state. If Ignacio shifts to the right, we could see light winds, more humid conditions, and localized heavy rain. On a more leftward track closer to the islands, we could see stronger/damaging winds and more widespread heavy rain/flooding. Everyone should continue to monitor the progress of Ignacio during the next several days,” National Weather Service forecasters said.

Rain clouds ahead of the center of the storm could begin to affect the Big Island Sunday and the other islands beginning Monday.

"Forecast uncertainty increases significantly on Monday and Tuesday, hinging on the eventual track of Hurricane Ignacio," the weather service said. "Forecast track errors at that time range are roughly 150 to 200 miles, so it is still too early to tell what the direct impacts will be,” forecasters said.

Air Force Reserve "hurricane hunter" planes remained in Hawaii after Tropical Storm Kilo passed and will begin flying into Ignacio Friday evening to help forecasters track the storm.

Forecasters are also monitoring the subtropical jet stream near Hawaii, which creates wind shear that has weakened previous storms approaching from the southeast.

"That’s the big question," said John Bravender, a meteorologist with the weather service in Honolulu. "What’s going to happen when the storm interacts with the jet stream?"

The jet stream, and wind shear, is not as strong as it was when hurricanes Hilda and Guillermo approached the islands. So current forecast models have Ignacio staying at hurricane strength as it nears Hawaii.

However, Bravender said the jet stream, and the chance of stronger wind shear, appear to be strengthening and that could change the path and intensity of Ignacio.

The hurricane is still expected to bring advisory-level surf to east shores as early as this weekend. The surf could reach warning levels later in the week, depending on Ignacio’s development.

Winds from the northeast should also begin picking up on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Kilo continued to strengthen south of the northwest Hawaiian islands. At 5 p.m. Friday, the storm was about 210 miles west-northwest of Johnston Island and 790 miles south-southeast of Midway Island, moving to the wes-northwest, away from the main Hawaiian islands, at 9 mph.

Maximum sustained wind are near 70 mph and the storm may become a hurricane Friday and a major hurricane by early next week. It is no longer a threat to the main Hawaiian islands.

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