Hurricane watches issued ahead of Lester’s approach to Hawaii
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
This graphic shows the projected path and intensity of Hurricane Lester as of 5 a.m.
» View Tropical Storm Madeline’s track
Update 5 a.m.
Hurricane Lester weakened slightly overnight but continued on a track toward Hawaii, prompting hurricane watches for Hawaii and Maui counties.
With its center located about 750 miles east of Hilo and 945 miles east of Honolulu, Lester was packing maximum sustained winds of 105 mph this morning and was moving west at 14 mph.
Forecasters with the National Weather Service expect Lester to continue to weaken through early Saturday, and pass north of the islands as a hurricane over the Labor Day weekend. While the hurricane is forecast to move north of the state, all islands except the Big Island are in the so-called “cone of uncertainty,” meaning a direct hit is possible from Maui to Kauai.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles.
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Hurricane watches are usually issued 48 hours before the onset of tropical storm-force winds in an area. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center said today that hurricane wind conditions are possible over Hawaii and Maui counties Saturday.
Swells generated by Lester will build over eastern shores today and Friday, peaking this weekend, forecasters said. Heavy rains from Lester may reach Hawaii and Maui counties on Saturday, and the other islands later in the weekend.
Lester approaches the islands just as Tropical Storm Madeline moves west away from the islands after a close brush past the Big Island Wednesday. All islands are under a wind advisory today because of high winds associated with the former hurricane as it moves well south of the rest of the state.
Update 11:02 p.m.
Hurricane Lester continues to weaken and move west toward Hawaii at 14 mph.
At 11 p.m. Lester was located about 835 miles east of Hilo and 1,030 miles east of Honolulu with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.
There are no watches or warnings in effect.
Previous Coverage
Hurricane Lester, now in the Central Pacific on a path toward Hawaii, weakened to a still-powerful Category 3 storm this afternoon.
At 5 p.m., Lester was packing maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, moving west at 14 mph, 915 miles east of Hilo and 1,105 miles east of Honolulu, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu.
>> Madeline weakens to a tropical storm as it nears Hawaii island
>> List of Madeline shelters, closures and cancellations
>> What you need to know to prepare for a storm
Forecasters expect Lester to weaken to below major hurricane status over the next 48 hours as it turns to the northwest, but it is likely to remain a hurricane as it nears Hawaii by the weekend.
Hurricane-force winds, of 74 mph or more, extend out 35 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds, of 39 mph or more, extend up to 105 miles.
Forecasters say large and potentially damaging swells generated by Lester will start to build over east-facing shores Thursday and Friday, peaking this weekend.
Lester could also bring strong winds and more rain to Hawaii Friday into Sunday. The forecast track has it moving just north of the islands, but it is still too far away to predict its exact path and potential effects on the islands.
“All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts there could be along the island chain given the track forecast uncertainty in the 3 to 5 day period,” forecasters said earlier today.
10 responses to “Hurricane watches issued ahead of Lester’s approach to Hawaii”
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Why are there 15-20 forecast models shown on TV? Could that be explained to the viewers?
Different factors plugged into modeling software yielding different results. Meteorologists still trying to perfect their craft. Always wise to watch the actual track and get the updates from NOAA.
Because it’s still not an exact science and multiple models are partly based on wind shifts. Remember Iniki was headed straight for Oahu when it veered off and hit Kauai directly. You never know when the winds of change (no pun intended) will shift Lester directly over the island chain.
I think it is irresponsible to show these models to the general public. Only a very few have the knowledge and gumption to dug into them. The rest of us should only pay attention to the OFCL (Official NHC/CPHC Forecast) and OFCI (Official NHC/CPHC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr); this will ensure our brains don’t overheat and explode . . . Or you can just listen to Guy Hagi and his sidekick Keahi Tucker!
The meteorologists use several models to develop their forecast. These could be statistical models, which are based on past history, and dynamic models, which are based on simulating the natural conditions. The official forcast is a judgement based on all the modeling results plus satellite images and airplane data. I would guess the forecast is a combination of consensus among the models, being prepared for worser case conditions, and best judgement.
For example, today’s 5 a.m. National Weather Service discussion of Madeline’s forecast intensity says, “While SHIPS and HWRF indicate strengthening at the end of the forecast period, ECMWF guidance indicates dissipation by day 3 while the GFS indicates degeneration to a remnant low on days 4 and 5. The official forecast favors these solutions, and now indicates degeneration to a remnant low by day 5.”
Lester looks pretty dangerous. Looks like it will hit part of Oahu (Central to North Shore) then hit Kauai almost directly. Hope it downgrades quickly and takes a more northerly path. Hang on to your BBD’s.
Huh? Are you looking at the same picture? Looks like that forecast has it going well north of the islands. Of course the path could change but the forecast does NOT have it hitting Oahu or Kauai. It’s expected to be a Category 1 hurricane when it passes closest to Oahu I believe.
The winds extend 30 miles out from the eye, that could encompass a large part of Oahu if it follows the projected path.
Pay attention to the WHITE CONE– it is the area of the expected path of the storm– with current data and forecasts, the center of Lester could pass anywhere in the cone. Think of the black line as the average of the possible paths within the cone. Think of the average as the estimate which is expected to be the least wrong when compared to the real path after Lester lasses. In other words the Black line is expected to be the closest to the real path, but not the only possible path in the expected area of the path as represented by the cone.
In hawaii, it’s LESTAH